152
FXUS64 KEPZ 231234
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
634 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WE WILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 COOLER THAN WE SAW ON SUNDAY, BUT
MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
- THE RECORD HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN WE
WILL LIKELY SET DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WE COULD
SET EVEN MORE RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST OR THE EAST, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE FRONT WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY, THOUGH, THE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGAINS STRENGTH AND BEGINS TO
RECENTER ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
JUMP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RUN 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MORE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND WE COULD SEE
MORE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL WHICH WE JUST SET
THIS WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, BUT AT THE
SURFACE A SECOND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER AND WE WILL SEE FRIDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE EAST OF EL PASO AND AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, SO THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE. FOR NEXT
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKE PLACE WITH MOISTURE ON
THE INCREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THIS WEEK'S RECORD SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES.
STRONG NNE WINDS AT TCS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, AND WILL
TREND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 15 OR 16Z BEFORE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH. FOR ELP, ESE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY, WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
DESPITE A 5 TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT, HIGHS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
MORNING GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON,
STAVING OFF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER 10S.
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES WILL RETURN MID-
WEEK, ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS (10-15 MPH, GUSTS
20-25 MPH). WE MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO,
BRINGING A MORE NOTABLE UPTICK IN WINDS WHILE THE HEAT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 93 57 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 89 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 68 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 90 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 50 92 52 96 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 88 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 92 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 93 50 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 96 55 99 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 95 55 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 92 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 91 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 91 51 95 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 93 52 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 46 79 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 89 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 90 51 95 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 84 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 47 90 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 86 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 90 52 92 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 90 52 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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