671
FXUS64 KEPZ 231702
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1102 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
- THE RECORD HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
LIKELY SET DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WE COULD SET EVEN
MORE RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REORGANIZES ITSELF BY TUESDAY SETTLING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, RAPIDLY REBOUNDING LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS
EASTWARD AND IS SETTLED RIGHT OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RISING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
STILL GENERALLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES AT 5-10 MPH. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS OF AROUND 10-20
MPH THAT AFTERNOON. VERY DRY FUELS AND VERY LOW MIN RHS OF 5-10%
WILL COMBINE WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS CREATING NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT AFTERNOON.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF IN
TEMPERATURES. LOWLAND HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE THE 60S AND
70S, WHICH IS MORE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. IN ADDITION, THIS FRONT
LOOKS QUITE WINDY WITH THE FROPA. WIND ADVISORIES COULD BE
WARRANTED, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPE AREAS. FOR REFERENCE,
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 35-39 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 50+ MPH.
BLOWING DUST COULD EVEN BE A CONCERN. IT'S LESS COMMON TO GET
BLOWING DUST FROM THIS TYPE OF SET UP, BUT POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A
DUSTY HAZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THE DUST THAT USUALLY BLOWS IN
FROM THE PLAINS. LOCALIZED DUST SOURCES NEAR DEMING AND THE
LORDSBURG PLAYA COULD ALSO BE AN AREA TO WATCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES.
STRONG NNE WINDS AT TCS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, AND WILL
TREND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 15 OR 16Z BEFORE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH. FOR ELP, ESE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY, WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MIN RHS
WILL BE CRITICAL AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOWLAND RHS DWINDLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS AFTERNOON WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT, 20 FOOT WINDS OF
5-10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 10-15% TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LOW END
BREEZINESS THAT AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS IN NM111 AND NM110 COULD
SEE WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH BUT THESE WON'T BE WIDESPREAD. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. IN
ADDITION, ERCS THAT DAY WILL BE IN THE 70-89TH PERCENTILE
GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT ERCS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL
BE IN THE UPPER PERCENTILES (90-96TH).
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. MIN RHS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30% GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BUT CRITICAL MIN RHS EXPECTED OUT WEST FRIDAY. BUT BY
SATURDAY, ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE OUT OF CRITICAL MIN RH
THRESHOLDS. POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 89 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 90 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 90 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 82 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 93 52 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 87 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 92 50 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 97 56 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 94 56 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 90 51 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 93 52 97 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 76 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 89 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 86 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 89 48 92 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 89 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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