022
FXUS64 KEPZ 242322
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE HEAT TURNS BACK ON FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE COOL DOWN. CURRENTLY UPPER HIGH SITTING OVER
SOCAL/WESTERN ARIZONA. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS HIGH RESIDES THE
OLD UPPER LOW HANGING ON WEST OF THE BAJA. LOOKS LIKE MORE RECORD
LEVEL HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE BAJA LOW ROTATES AROUND IT,
REACHING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN
FORMING LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RIGHT NOW EXPECT
WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME NEAR-CRITICAL
BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE REMAINING JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
BIG CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THURSDAY. FIRST, A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS AND LEE-TROUGH ALLOWS RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE BACK DOOR.
FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE SACS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THEN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AZ
BORDER BY NOON TIME. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO 15-25 MPH TO DEVELOP
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF TERRAIN. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY
OUT TO LUNA AND HIDALGO COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL. SAME
STORY AGAIN SATURDAY AS LIGHTER EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS CONTINUE.
BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER HIGH IS FORCED EASTWARD
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SHOW BY LATER
SATURDAY MOISTURE STREAMING UP OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. GFS MORE BULLISH ON QPF,
BUT ECMWF SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OUR
AREA COULD REALLY USE SOME PRECIP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
FEW-SCT250, BECOMING SKC MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS
260-290 AT 08-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE WSW 230-260 AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD CENTERS ON THURSDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS
WILL DEFINITELY PUSH FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR-CRITICAL, BUT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS. STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WIND SHIFT
AND EAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH...STRONGEST
ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER FRIDAY AS BOTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND HUMIDITY INCREASES. AND BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WE EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 4-8% THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING TO 15-25%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 8-15% THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING
TO 20-35% FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY, BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THURSDAY,
FAIR-GOOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 93 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 94 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 95 52 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 90 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 96 52 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 98 56 99 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 97 56 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 93 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 95 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 94 50 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 52 97 49 97 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 93 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 81 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 87 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 94 48 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 87 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 89 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 92 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 87 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 91 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 92 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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