933
FXUS64 KEPZ 251243
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
643 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPPER HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, MAKING A VERY SLOW
EASTWARD CRAWL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO CONTINUED RECORD
MARCH WARMTH AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH, AND WILL
LIKELY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MARCH 25/26. BESIDES THE HEAT, IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY. THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
BE CURRENTLY BE SEEN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND HAS VIRTUALLY NO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROMOTE WEST FLOW 15 TO 20 MPH FOR OUR
AREA. THIS ISN'T A BIG CONCERN FOR MOST, BUT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
FIRE WEATHER GIVEN THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS.
STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS YET
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY EAST WINDS,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10 TO 20 DEGREE COOLING (LOWLAND HIGHS UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S), YET THIS STILL KEEPS US SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
RECENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS HAVE KICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST
OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX, SO EL PASO MAY BE HAZY THAT
AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING US IN A SOUTH FLOW
REGIME AND ALLOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE FINAL COUPLE DAYS OF MARCH GOING INTO EARLY APRIL. IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL MAY USHER IN THE RETURN OF A
MORE TYPICAL SPRING WINDY PATTERN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-12 KNOTS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH
EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES, DROPPING BELOW 5 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER DARK, AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS 20-25
MPH) WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLACK RANGE, DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO RH
RECOVERY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED, AS ERC VALUES
HAVE PUSHED ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS IN PARTS OF SW NEW
MEXICO.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, BRINGING STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY. PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
MAY AGAIN APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER
THE PICTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE
AN ISSUE AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 95 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 92 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 92 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 92 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 70 39 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 93 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 83 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 93 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 89 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 94 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 97 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 98 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 89 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 97 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 93 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 94 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 93 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 96 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 94 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 93 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 85 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 81 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 80 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 86 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 91 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 93 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 83 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 86 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 90 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 85 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 90 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 91 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 85 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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