253
FXUS64 KEPZ 281132
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM, WITH
WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY, QUIET AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE WEATHER AND GIVING THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL MOVE
EAST. AS IT DOES SO, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. AS
A RESULT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM, PROMOTING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. AS
OF NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH POPS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN THE
15-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-FEW250.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT DMN. DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOLER ALBEIT
SEASONAL AIR IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS WHAT HAS
BEEN SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS, FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
FOR THE LOWLANDS. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 10
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING,
LASTING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS, THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN A LOW RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
WE BEGIN TO SEE WINDS INCREASE STARTING TUESDAY TOPPING OUT 15 TO
20 MPH, BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 86 58 88 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 45 83 50 84 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 47 83 53 85 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 46 84 51 86 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 38 65 43 64 / 0 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 84 56 84 / 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 46 79 51 77 / 0 10 10 30
DEMING 47 86 54 86 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 46 84 52 82 / 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 84 59 87 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 42 86 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 91 53 91 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 49 80 54 81 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 50 88 55 89 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 48 84 53 86 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 86 58 87 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 44 86 48 86 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 45 88 50 89 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 50 86 58 86 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 46 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 42 77 48 78 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 39 76 45 75 / 0 10 10 10
TIMBERON 40 73 46 73 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 37 77 45 76 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 47 83 54 83 / 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 42 85 49 85 / 0 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 42 79 47 76 / 0 10 20 40
HURLEY 44 81 50 79 / 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 44 86 49 84 / 0 10 10 30
MULE CREEK 45 82 50 79 / 0 10 10 30
FAYWOOD 47 80 53 80 / 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 47 84 53 83 / 0 10 20 30
HACHITA 46 84 53 82 / 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 84 53 82 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVERDALE 52 80 54 77 / 0 20 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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