534
FXUS64 KEPZ 290432
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1032 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT
AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM THIS EVENING'S STORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRES. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
..SUNDAY
UPPER HIGH THAT BROUGHT RECORD-SETTING WARMTH TO THE REGION LAST
WEEK HAS SHIFTED EAST, AND WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE GULF STATES ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE
PREVAILING PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER SONORA AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY ALOFT, WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRES AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW.
..MONDAY
PLUME OF MOISTURE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
(15-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON.
ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE WARMER, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S.
..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MUCH MORE OPEN FLOW REGIME ALOFT MIDWEEK, MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME IN THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAST-MOVING,
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS THAT SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
MOVE ON SWIFTLY. LEE SURFACE LOW FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL ALSO BRING DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE, SO NO WIND HEADLINES EXPECTED. FOR WEDNESDAY, A FAST-
MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO, BRINGING ANOTHER SLIM
WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-25%). BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD ALBUQUERQUE AND THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. MORE NOTABLE FOR US WILL BE ANOTHER UPTICK IN WIND
SPEEDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
..THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING
ANY CONCERNING WIND SPEEDS ANY PARTICULAR DAY, SO NOT ANTICIPATING
WIND HEADLINES THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 80S. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT INTRUSION
AGAIN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THIS ONE LOOKS DRIER AND
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS. COULD LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND
WEATHER-WISE AND A NICE EASTER SUNDAY FOR EL PASO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
SCT-BKN250 TONIGHT, THEN SCT-BKN200 TOMORROW. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHEAST 110-150 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS
ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WE WILL SEE QUIETER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS COOLER AIR
AND MIN RH'S ABOVE 20% WILL BE THE RULE. BUT IT WON'T LAST LONG,
AS SUNDAY WILL SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE WEST (BUT NOT
STRONG) AND MIN RH'S WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS
AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL
HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WIND FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL GIVE US
BREEZY TO WINDY (BUT NOT TOO WINDY) CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
MIN RH'S UP A LITTLE BUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE DRIER AIR WILL
WIN OUT AND WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 46 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 38 64 44 65 / 0 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 84 56 84 / 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 46 79 51 76 / 0 10 10 30
DEMING 48 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 46 83 52 82 / 0 0 10 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 86 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 85 49 87 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 45 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 50 86 59 87 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 46 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 43 78 48 78 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 38 76 44 76 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 40 72 46 74 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 38 78 44 76 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 48 83 54 82 / 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 43 84 48 85 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 43 80 46 76 / 0 10 10 40
HURLEY 44 81 50 79 / 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 44 86 48 83 / 0 10 10 30
MULE CREEK 44 82 50 79 / 0 10 10 40
FAYWOOD 47 81 53 80 / 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 48 84 54 82 / 0 10 10 40
HACHITA 46 83 53 82 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 83 54 82 / 0 10 20 40
CLOVERDALE 53 80 54 77 / 0 20 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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