030
FXUS64 KEPZ 300448
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A SPRINGTIME WEATHER PATTERN AS REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION FOR THIS WEEK. LAST WEEK'S DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS GIVEN
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON TRACKS
THAT PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS
KEEPING SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION AND POSSIBLY FUELING
ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BOOTHEEL AND RESIDUAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL FUEL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT MAY
BE TO MOISTURE STARVED TO PRODUCE RAIN OR LIGHTNING. A WEST TO
EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR LOWLAND DESERT AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GILA REGION AND SAC MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR WITH DAY TIME HEATING ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR THE AREA WILL BE STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL RISE INTO THE
WINDY CATEGORY FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE DUST PRONE AREAS OF THE LOWLAND DESERTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER A STEADY
WEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-11 KNOTS FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE SUDDEN WIND
SHIFTS FOR KTCS AND KDMN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE HIGH CEILINGS THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER. MIN RH'S
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND MIN RH'S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
AREA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MIN RH'S IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 89 62 87 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 85 56 82 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 54 86 55 83 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 43 61 / 0 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 83 57 83 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 53 77 51 75 / 0 20 10 10
DEMING 55 87 55 85 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 53 81 51 81 / 0 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 88 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 49 89 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 92 58 90 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 55 81 56 80 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 55 90 59 88 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 54 87 58 85 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 88 61 85 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 87 51 84 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 51 89 52 87 / 0 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 60 88 59 85 / 0 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 53 86 53 84 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 50 79 48 75 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 46 76 45 72 / 0 10 20 10
TIMBERON 48 74 48 70 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 45 76 44 75 / 10 20 20 10
HILLSBORO 56 82 54 81 / 10 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 48 85 49 83 / 0 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 47 77 46 74 / 10 30 20 10
HURLEY 51 79 49 77 / 0 20 10 10
CLIFF 48 84 48 81 / 0 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 50 79 49 76 / 0 30 20 20
FAYWOOD 54 81 53 78 / 0 20 10 10
ANIMAS 56 82 54 82 / 10 20 20 10
HACHITA 54 83 53 82 / 10 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 82 53 82 / 10 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 55 77 53 76 / 20 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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