050
FXUS64 KEPZ 301101
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
501 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON; SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TUESDAY; THEN A BIT BETTER
CHANCES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH WEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY USHER IN COOLER
PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A SPRINGTIME WEATHER PATTERN AS REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION FOR THIS WEEK. LAST WEEK'S DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS GIVEN
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON TRACKS
THAT PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS
KEEPING SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION AND POSSIBLY FUELING
ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BOOTHEEL AND RESIDUAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL FUEL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT MAY
BE TO MOISTURE STARVED TO PRODUCE RAIN OR LIGHTNING. A WEST TO
EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR LOWLAND DESERT AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GILA REGION AND SAC MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR WITH DAY TIME HEATING ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR THE AREA WILL BE STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL RISE INTO THE
WINDY CATEGORY FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE DUST PRONE AREAS OF THE LOWLAND DESERTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER A STEADY
WEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT150 SCT-BKN250.
AFTER 22Z..SLIGHT CHANCE BKN080 -SHRA/-TSRA FROM CONT DIVIDE WEST.
SURFACE WINDS WEST 6-9 KNOTS INCREASING TO WEST/SOUTHWEST 8-12
KNOTS AFTER 19Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THIS NEW WEEK
AHEAD. FORTUNATELY THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART DON'T COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER. MOSTLY DRY WEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY, FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE CONT
DIVIDE. WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZIER AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, BUT HUMIDITY INCREASES, OFFSETTING MUCH OF THE IMPACT OF
THE WINDS-HOWEVER CONDITIONS STILL APPROACHING CRITICAL.
HUMIDITY MUCH LOWER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BACK INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS. SOME BREEZES THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR
CRITICAL, BUT THEN RELAX TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DOES PUSH IN FRIDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT MODEST HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE CONT
DIVIDE..15-23% TO THE WEST. RH FALLING TO 10-15% THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOUNTAINS 10-20% TODAY AND TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 20-35%
WEDNESDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 12-20% THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN MOSTLY GOOD
FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 87 62 83 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 56 82 56 80 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 55 83 56 78 / 10 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 48 85 51 78 / 10 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 43 66 44 56 / 20 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 83 58 76 / 20 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 51 75 51 68 / 10 10 10 30
DEMING 55 85 56 79 / 10 10 0 10
LORDSBURG 51 81 55 74 / 20 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 86 63 81 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 52 87 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 58 90 58 88 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 56 80 58 76 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 59 88 60 85 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 58 85 59 79 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 85 62 79 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 48 84 49 78 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 49 87 51 81 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 59 85 62 81 / 10 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 50 84 52 79 / 10 0 0 10
MAYHILL 48 79 49 69 / 10 10 0 30
MESCALERO 45 76 45 66 / 20 10 10 40
TIMBERON 48 74 47 65 / 10 10 0 20
WINSTON 44 77 45 68 / 20 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 54 81 55 74 / 20 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 46 83 48 76 / 20 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 38 76 39 67 / 20 10 20 40
HURLEY 49 77 50 71 / 10 10 10 20
CLIFF 39 81 38 74 / 20 10 10 30
MULE CREEK 34 76 34 69 / 20 20 10 30
FAYWOOD 53 78 53 71 / 10 10 10 20
ANIMAS 54 82 57 77 / 20 10 10 10
HACHITA 53 82 56 76 / 20 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 82 55 78 / 20 10 0 10
CLOVERDALE 53 76 55 71 / 30 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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