094
FNUS74 KEPZ 081448
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR 16 SPRINGS RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
848 AM MDT WED APR 8 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MDT ON APRIL 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
OUR LATEST STORM SYSTEM HAS EXITED TO THE EAST, WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WITH
DRIER AIR AND FEWER CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD,
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOWS BIG
DROPS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHT INCREASES
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL LURK JUST TO THE EAST, AND ATTEMPT TO WASH IN
THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP RH FROM CRASHING. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN STRONGER FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHER RH AND BETTER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SACRAMENTOS.
THE MOISTURE, RAIN, AND STORM CHANCES REPEAT SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRING DRYING, AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY BRING ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11200 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 8
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (78100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........8 8 12 41 41 56
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 5 10 20
TEMP............45 50 64 69 70 69
RH..............51 44 28 21 22 23
20 FT WIND......W 7 W 7 SW 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 14 15 15 15
MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 8300 10900 9800 7700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 12 S 7 S 7 S 8 SSE 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 5 50 65 70 55
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD FAIR
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........36 36 18 11 11 13
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............67 58 50 48 47 45
RH..............25 35 47 54 60 67
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (FT)....7500 2600 BLW100 400 400 300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 12 S 14 S 15 SW 17 SW 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..60 26 0 6 7 5
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (80100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (107100
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (167300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........20 36 56 70
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 40 40
TEMP............42 54 65 71
RH..............76 55 33 28
20 FT WIND......SW 6G14 S 7G17 S 8G20 SE 8G20
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2200 9700 9800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 16 S 13 S 20
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 31 107 167
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT BEGINNING TO DRY
WITH INCREASING WINDS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
FORECASTER...BIRD
REQUESTED BY...HAYLEY BOSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2609570.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/08/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL HAYLEY.BOSS@USDA.GOV,MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV,HCHRISBOSS@GMAIL.COM
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