775
FXUS64 KEPZ 142332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
- AFTER A CALMER WEDNESDAY, BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW
ARIZONA THROUGH NW NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST AND
EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEAN TIME, A MODERATE LEE-SIDE LOW WILL FORM OVER SE COLORADO NEXT
FEW HOURS AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BLOWING DUST
PRODUCING HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE ALL SEASON, BUT TRAJECTORIES TODAY
WOULD BRING ANY DUST INTO THE EL PASO METRO AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, UPPER TROUGH COMING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD
CLEAR THE SKIES AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY FEW IN ANY CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT DOES PRODUCE DECENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHS EACH DAY,
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THU/FRI. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH A SIDE DOOR COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOR
A COOLER WEEKEND.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A NEW PACIFIC LOW DROPS DOWN OFF THE NOCAL
COAST SUNDAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWER LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHEAST, WITH THE GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE SEEPING TOWARD
OUR AREA. AS USUAL, MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE (DEWPOINT) MOVING UP, WITH THE GFS/CMC MOST BULLISH AND
ECMWF MORE BEARISH ON PCPN. SO SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
GRIDS FOR SUN/MON. THE EAST PUSH BRINGING THE MOISTURE IN WILL
ALSO BRING QUITE BREEZY EAST WINDS IN ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS,
SHIFTING W AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS
TO THE UPPER TEENS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM W-SW. SCATTERED -SHRA
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF KLRU WITH SOME EXTRA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FROM THE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS DRIFT E TOWARDS KELP THROUGH
2Z WHICH MAY REDUCE VIS TO MVFR CRITERIA FROM BLDU. RADAR AND
GROUND OBS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE AFTERNOON WINDS OF
WEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH, COMBINED WITH MIN RHS IN THE
15-23% RANGE. REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AGAIN THU/FRI, AND BACK TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-12% THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 18-28%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 8-18% THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING TO
20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY-EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN FAIR-GOOD SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 78 50 83 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 76 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 75 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 52 34 60 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 77 42 82 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 77 52 82 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 47 79 41 83 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 83 48 88 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 72 48 77 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 51 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 76 45 82 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 77 51 82 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 76 40 80 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 40 79 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 79 45 84 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 74 41 80 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 66 37 73 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 63 36 71 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 61 37 68 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 34 69 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 36 74 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 71 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 74 40 80 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 76 44 80 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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