423
FXUS64 KEPZ 151014
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
414 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
- FAIR AND SEASONAL TODAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WESTERLY BREEZES
BRING IN DRIER AIR, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
- BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS FRIDAY. VERY
DRY AIR, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WILL BRING ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FOR A COOLER WEEKEND. MOISTURE
SLIPS IN FROM THE EAST FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
SOME PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST S OF THE INT'L
BORDER, SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED MIGHTILY WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
WHICH SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAIN RATES WILL BE LIGHT AS LONG
AS PRECIP REACHES THE SFC.
AFTER A BREEZY TO WINDY FEW DAYS EARLY THIS WEEK, A CALMER DAY IS
FORECAST FOR WED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN. SOME LINGERING
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU,
RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. LEE SFC TROUGHING IS
GENERATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. THE SFC LOW IS NUDGED SE ON FRI AS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SHIFTING OUR
WINDS WESTERLY. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD,
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A HAZARD BOTH THU AND FRI. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SIDEDOOR FRONT THAT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE SAT AM, BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N-NE WINDS. THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US MOIST,
BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR A SHORT TIME. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AS A RESULT SUN/MON, MAINLY E OF THE RGV. THERE IS A
DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE CONTENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES
WITH THE GEFS MORE BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT INTO MIDWEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRI, THEN FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL REBOUND TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. LIGHTER
WINDS TODAY, BUT WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS FROM THE SW AND W.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR MOSTLY SKC SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS IN THE 3-8KT RANGE THROUGH 16Z...THEN INCREASING TO
8-12KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18-22KT THROUGH 02Z...THEN LIGHTER
AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
FOR TODAY WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LATEST PASSING PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT, WITH A MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN A
COUPLE OF THINGS: LIGHTER WINDS, AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THOSE LIGHTER WINDS. THUS, FOR TODAY, A LOT OF SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND VERY NEAR THE DAILY
AVERAGES, AND A CRASHING OF THE MINRH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WE LOSE
SOME OF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS TODAY, BUT ALSO PUSH OUT WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BROUGHT, AND REPLACE IT WITH VERY DRY
AIR, AND MINRH DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS.
WITH ERCS NEAR, OR JUST BELOW, AVERAGE FOR THE DATE, AND WINDS A
BIT LOWER, THE DRYING WON'T ALLOW FOR A SHARP ELEVATION IN FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS A ONE DAY BREAK IN
WINDS, AND WE REVERSE COURSE THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY, WITH WIND
SPEEDS TRENDING UPWARD, AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO
PRESS TOWARD THE REGION.
ON THURSDAY, OUR WESTERN AREAS, SW LOWLANDS AND GILA/BLACKRANGE,
WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO OUR WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF
AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH WINDS APPROACHING RFW CRITERIA, AS RH WILL
BE VERY LOW. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL BE BREEZY, BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW RFW WIND CRITERIA. FRIDAY IS THE DAY THAT SHOWS MORE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, AS MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WINDS PUSHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO RFW
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. WE ARE
CONSIDERING A RF WATCH FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL PUSH THAT OFF FOR
ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON MODEL
CONSISTENCY. BUT, HEADS UP THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO EXERCISE
CAUTION, AND STAY READY AND ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR, AND FASTER FIRE GROWTH.
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY, AS
FRIDAY'S TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS
NORTHERLY, AND ALLOW THEM TO SLACKEN OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, AND COOLER, WITH LESS WINDS,
EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNDAY WE SEE A FETCH OF MOISTURE
MOVE IN OVER OTERO, HUDSPETH, AND EL PASO, ON RETURN-FLOW EASTERLY
WINDS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WE GO BACK TO A DEEP WEST FLOW PATTERN AND FLUSH THAT
MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST, AND RETURN TO TYPICAL SPRING DRYNESS
WITH, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 80 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 56 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 44 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 40 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 67 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 72 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 74 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 74 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 42 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 41 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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