295
FXUS64 KEPZ 160419
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1019 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
- BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COOLER WEEKEND.
- MOISTURE SLIPS IN FROM THE EAST FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON
THU, RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. LEE SFC TROUGHING IS
GENERATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE
MODELED FOR THU WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW IS NUDGED SE ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING DOWN
THE PLAINS, GIVING US A MORE STOUT GRADIENT. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SACS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR EARLY FRI AS 700MB WINDS REACH 40-50KTS WITH SOME MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG EAST SLOPES. SINCE WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
BIT FOR THU, BLOWING DUST IS LESS OF A CONCERN, BUT FRI COULD
STILL BE DUSTY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SIDEDOOR FRONT THAT ARRIVES EARLY
SAT, BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N-NE WINDS INITIALLY. THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US MOIST,
BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR A SHORT TIME. EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS
VERY BREEZY DUE TO TIGHT ISOBAR PACKING, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST SLOPES
WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE SEEN, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS A RESULT OF THE SE FLOW SUN,
MAINLY E OF THE RGV. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE GEFS MORE BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT ON
MON AS WEAK RIDGING TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, RETURNING US TO DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRI, THEN FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL BECOME MILD AGAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE AM FROM W-NW, BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN THU AFTERNOON TO
20-25KTS FROM S-SW. NO BLDU IS EXPECTED. MAINLY SKC GIVES WAY TO
SCT-BKN250 DURING THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
SOME FIRE CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
LOWER AND AFTERNOON BREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS THURSDAY OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, WITH A BIT STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS THEY
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MET OR CLOSE
TO IT ON FRI, MORE SO IN SOUTHERN NM WHERE A FIRE WX WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS 20-FT WINDS
REACH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. STRONG WIND SHIFT SATURDAY
FROM WEST TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST BY MID- DAY, ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. BACK TO DRY AND WARM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-12% THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 18-25%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 10-20% THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO 25-40% SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES EXCELLENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BECOMING GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 57 38 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 76 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 82 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 70 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 78 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 77 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 73 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 41 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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