539
FXUS64 KEPZ 161734
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1134 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND WINDY FRIDAY, AND WITH VERY DRY AIR
WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COOL FRONT, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COOLER
WEEKEND.
- FOR SUNDAY, GUSTY EAST WINDS BRING IN GULF MOISTURE FROM TEXAS.
THIS GIVE THE AREAS ALONG, AND EST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
- MONDAY, AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVE
BACK IN. NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON
THU, RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. LEE SFC TROUGHING IS
GENERATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE
MODELED FOR THU WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW IS NUDGED SE ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING DOWN
THE PLAINS, GIVING US A MORE STOUT GRADIENT. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SACS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR EARLY FRI AS 700MB WINDS REACH 40-50KTS WITH SOME MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG EAST SLOPES. SINCE WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
BIT FOR THU, BLOWING DUST IS LESS OF A CONCERN, BUT FRI COULD
STILL BE DUSTY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SIDEDOOR FRONT THAT ARRIVES EARLY
SAT, BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N-NE WINDS INITIALLY. THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US MOIST,
BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR A SHORT TIME. EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS
VERY BREEZY DUE TO TIGHT ISOBAR PACKING, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST SLOPES
WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE SEEN, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS A RESULT OF THE SE FLOW SUN,
MAINLY E OF THE RGV. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE GEFS MORE BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT ON
MON AS WEAK RIDGING TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, RETURNING US TO DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRI, THEN FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL BECOME MILD AGAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15G20-25KT WITH SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS START TO BE ON THE
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAYS SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT ALL TERMINALS.
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. PERHAPS SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW, AND THIS CRITICALLY DRY AIR WILL SIT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY, AND SLOWLY PASS TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW,
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP INTO ELEVATED, NEAR
CRITICAL, AND EVEN CRITICAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE, WITH THE ADDITION OF BREEZY WINDS TODAY, AND WINDY AND
GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY, OUR WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW, IT WILL BE THE EASTERN AREAS,
AND IN PARTICULAR THE SACS, THAT SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY AREA EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY'S WINDS, AND THUS,
EVEN WITH SLIGHT RH GAINS, THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MEET RFW
CRITERIA FOR ALL, OR MOST, OF OUR S CENTRAL AND SW NM FIRE ZONES.
THUS WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. FRIDAY'S WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30+ MPH. THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PEAKING FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH AND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. TODAY'S MINRH WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE-DIGITS MOST AREAS, WITH LOWER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY THE MINRH WILL BE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN IN FROM THE NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS FROM W TO N, AND
KEEPING THEM AT LEAST BREEZY AND GUSTY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER
INCREASE, WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME GULF
MOISTURE, AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
MONDAY, WE REVERT BACK TO A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, WHICH WILL
PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST, AND DRAW IN DRY AIR ONCE
AGAIN. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIR AND MILD, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, DRY WEATHER, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY
AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 83 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 80 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 76 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 82 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 87 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 85 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 80 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 69 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 67 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 70 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 69 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 75 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 78 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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