660
FXUS64 KEPZ 161829
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1229 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- BREEZY AGAIN FRIDAY COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT AFTERNOON.
- A COOL FRONT WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH AND EAST WINDS MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COOLER WEEKEND.
- FOR SUNDAY, GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BRING IN GULF MOISTURE FROM
TEXAS. THIS GIVE THE AREAS ALONG, AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
- MONDAY, AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVE
BACK IN. NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THE SACRAMENTO MTNS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED WINDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 6AM OR
SO. WINDS STAY BREEZY UP THERE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY TOMORROW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
IN NORMAL DUST AREAS, BUT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED. THE BREEZY DAYS WE HAD RECENTLY DID NOT CAUSE A LOT OF DUST
ISSUES, BUT CERTAINLY SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
WINDS START TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY
DUE TO AN INCOMING SIDE DOOR AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WINDS START TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ALL SITES
WITH AN EAST WIND. BREEZES WON'T BE TOO SIGNIFICANT, BUT MAYBE 10-20
MPH THAT AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COOL AIR COMES IN FROM THE PLAINS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN ON WEST FACING SLOPES (LIKE WEST EL PASO AND THE HUECO
TANKS). THIS WILL BE TRUE WITH THE FIRST PUSH AS WELL DUE TO AN
EASTERLY WIND. IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER APPEARANCE OF HAZY
SKIES FROM BOTH PUSHES FROM THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 8-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE SEEPS INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE WEST
TX WITH LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TIME FRAME WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING MUCH BREEZIER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AN EAST WIND CAUSING BLOWING
DUST ISN'T SUPER COMMON BUT IT CAN HAPPEN. LAST YEAR WE HAD A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED WINDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE,
INCLUDING THE LORDSBURG PLAYA. BLOWING DUST OCCURRED ON THE PLAYA
AND CAUSED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS VISIBILITY THAT UNFORTUNATELY
ENDED IN A FEW DEATHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15G20-25KT WITH SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS START TO BE ON THE
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAYS SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT ALL TERMINALS.
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. PERHAPS SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY WITH VALUES
GENERALLY 9-15% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS AND 17-25% FOR THE
AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND EAST SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN WILL
BECOME BREEZY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW
FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR WEST TX. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST AT 10-18 MPH. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS AT 15-25 MPH. AN INCOMING SIDE
DOOR AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY SATURDAY AND WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS RELAX A BIT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-13 MPH. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST
FACING SLOPES. WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH BUT MIN RHS WILL
RISE UP TO 15-25%. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN FAR WEST TX, AND LESSER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
MIN RHS RISE OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MONDAY WITH VALUES OF 17-30%
AND 30-55% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES EXPECTED
MONDAY AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COUPLED WITH CRITICAL RHS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 83 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 80 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 76 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 82 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 87 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 85 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 80 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 69 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 67 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 70 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 69 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 75 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 78 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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