015
FXUS64 KEPZ 170431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FOR WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..FRIDAY
SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW INCREASES ON FRIDAY, WITH A 996MB SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MID-AFTERNOON. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND KNOWN SENSITIVE AREAS
SUCH AS THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, PORTIONS OF LUNA COUNTY, AND THE DUST
SOURCES IN NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZY AGAIN ACROSS
EL PASO.
..THIS WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SPILLING DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL REACH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A COOLER
WEEKEND (LOWLAND HIGHS MID 70S SATURDAY, LOWER 70S SUNDAY). WINDS
DO LOOK GUSTY ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE WEST EL PASO. MORE BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE LORDSBURG PLAYA ALONG I-10 ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EL PASO/HUDSPETH/OTERO
COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THOUGH ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
WIND SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
VERY SPOTTY RAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. WE MAY NEED WIND
HEADLINES DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SKIES FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR FRIDAY. SURFACE
WINDS 230-260 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 240-270 AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS MIDDAY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE TOMORROW, LEADING TO
HAZY SKIES BUT NO LESS THAN 5 MILES VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY WITH
VALUES GENERALLY 9-15% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS AND 17-25%
FOR THE AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND EAST SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR WEST TX. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-18 MPH. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS AT 15-25 MPH. AN INCOMING
SIDE DOOR AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY SATURDAY AND WILL
BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS RELAX A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-13 MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
WEST FACING SLOPES. WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH BUT MIN
RHS WILL RISE UP TO 15-25%. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN FAR WEST TX, AND
LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
MIN RHS RISE OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MONDAY WITH VALUES OF
17-30% AND 30-55% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EXPECTED MONDAY AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COUPLED WITH CRITICAL
RHS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 83 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 79 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 79 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 76 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 82 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 87 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 75 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 80 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 80 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 69 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 67 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 65 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 70 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 76 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 79 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 69 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 75 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 72 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 72 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 78 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page