127
FXUS64 KEPZ 181147
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
547 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..SATURDAY
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH ROSWELL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL REACH EL PASO'S RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING (AROUND 2-4 AM TONIGHT). WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST
THEREAFTER, LEADING TO A COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. INITIAL WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DON'T
LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, BUT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A
1027MB SURFACE HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.
..SUNDAY
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY (LOWLAND HIGHS LOWER 70S, 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL). MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES, INCLUDING WEST EL PASO.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
THERE. MORE BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA ALONG I-10 THAT AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND A VERY SLIM (10-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS MAINLY
FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
VERY LIGHT (<0.05").
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
VERY SPOTTY RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
BLACK RANGE) OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. WE MAY NEED WIND
HEADLINES DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC LOW
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WELL TO OUR NORTH THUS NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, AND NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY BY MID-
MORNING, SLOWLY DIMINISHING. A SECONDARY PUSH FROM THE EAST WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING, WITH ESE WINDS INCREASING AGAIN, PARTICULARLY
AT DMN AND LRU, BUT ALSO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK AT ELP. WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW AWW CRITERIA AT ELP. LLWS LOOKS TO ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SECOND PUSH THIS EVENING, WITH ESE WINDS AROUND 38 KNOTS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN NEW MEXICO, AND 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER
MUCH OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. WEST OF THE DIVIDE, LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS THE EAST LATER TODAY, BUT
WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
VALUES AS WELL. RFTI VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1-2.
A SECOND PUSH OF EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL FURTHER BOOST RH VALUES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'LL HEAD BACK INTO A DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. FIRE CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 72 51 81 / 0 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 45 66 44 75 / 0 40 30 30
LAS CRUCES 44 71 46 78 / 0 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 42 74 46 78 / 0 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 34 56 / 0 10 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 51 77 / 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 43 67 44 73 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 46 73 47 81 / 0 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 49 72 48 80 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 71 54 80 / 0 20 20 10
DELL CITY 42 69 44 78 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 50 74 50 83 / 0 40 30 30
LOMA LINDA 44 64 46 74 / 0 20 30 20
FABENS 51 72 51 83 / 0 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 49 70 49 79 / 0 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 72 51 79 / 0 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 43 72 44 79 / 0 10 20 20
HATCH 43 75 47 81 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 51 73 51 82 / 0 20 10 10
OROGRANDE 45 70 46 77 / 0 10 20 20
MAYHILL 30 62 37 68 / 0 0 20 30
MESCALERO 32 64 37 67 / 0 0 20 30
TIMBERON 32 59 38 65 / 0 10 30 30
WINSTON 33 65 36 70 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 43 70 46 76 / 0 10 20 20
SPACEPORT 40 72 44 78 / 0 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 38 69 40 73 / 0 10 20 20
HURLEY 40 69 41 75 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 44 75 44 80 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 43 72 44 77 / 0 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 43 67 44 74 / 0 10 20 10
ANIMAS 50 72 46 81 / 0 10 10 0
HACHITA 48 71 46 80 / 0 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 72 46 81 / 0 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 49 69 46 77 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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