408
FXUS64 KEPZ 190449
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1049 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..SUNDAY
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP THE REGION COOL ON SUNDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 70S, 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL. MORE NOTABLE
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. 1027MB SURFACE HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, REINFORCING EAST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND
FRANKLIN/ORGAN/FLORIDA MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LORDSBURG PLAYA ALONG I-10 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND A VERY SLIM (10-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS MAINLY
FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
VERY LIGHT (<0.05").
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS DOWN OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
(SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BLACK RANGE, HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS) OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. RIGHT NOW, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WELL
TO OUR NORTH THUS NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THURSDAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS, THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
..NEXT WEEKEND
BENIGN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW-END BREEZY WIND EACH
AFTERNOON, WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG
ESE SURFACE WIND 090-120 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH MOUNTAINTOP WIND
30 TO 35 KNOTS. INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN KELP/KLRU TAFS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY 110-140 AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SKIES SKC-FEW250, THEN SCT-BKN250 AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
EXPECT MORE MOISTURE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY; MOSTLY SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM TUESDAY ON BECOMES MORE TYPICAL SPRING
WEATHER WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. WEST WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY TO 15-25 MPH AND
THEN PEAK ON THURSDAY AT 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY-STILL BREEZY THOUGH. FIRE
CONDITIONS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 15-25% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO 8-13% TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO
10-20% TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD
SUNDAY/MONDAY BECOMING MOSTLY EXCELLENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 73 51 80 / 0 20 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 44 67 44 75 / 0 30 40 40
LAS CRUCES 44 70 46 77 / 0 20 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 40 74 46 77 / 0 10 30 40
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 34 57 / 0 10 30 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 73 51 77 / 0 10 20 40
SILVER CITY 42 67 44 73 / 0 20 20 20
DEMING 46 73 48 81 / 0 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 48 72 49 80 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 72 54 80 / 0 20 30 20
DELL CITY 42 69 45 77 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 48 75 50 83 / 0 30 40 40
LOMA LINDA 43 65 46 74 / 0 20 30 30
FABENS 49 73 51 82 / 0 20 30 20
SANTA TERESA 48 70 50 79 / 0 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 72 51 80 / 0 20 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 41 72 44 79 / 0 20 20 20
HATCH 42 75 47 82 / 0 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 50 74 51 82 / 0 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 44 70 47 77 / 0 20 30 30
MAYHILL 30 62 38 67 / 0 10 30 40
MESCALERO 32 65 37 67 / 0 0 30 50
TIMBERON 33 60 38 64 / 0 10 30 40
WINSTON 32 65 39 69 / 0 10 10 50
HILLSBORO 42 70 46 76 / 0 10 20 30
SPACEPORT 38 72 44 77 / 0 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 38 69 41 73 / 0 10 20 30
HURLEY 40 69 42 75 / 0 20 10 20
CLIFF 43 75 45 80 / 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 42 73 44 77 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 41 68 45 75 / 0 20 20 20
ANIMAS 48 73 47 81 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 47 72 46 80 / 0 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 73 46 80 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 48 70 47 77 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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