267
FXUS64 KEPZ 191130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..SUNDAY
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP THE REGION COOL ON SUNDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 70S, 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL. MORE NOTABLE
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. 1027MB SURFACE HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, REINFORCING EAST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND
FRANKLIN/ORGAN/FLORIDA MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LORDSBURG PLAYA ALONG I-10 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND A VERY SLIM (10-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS MAINLY
FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
VERY LIGHT (<0.05").
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS DOWN OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
(SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BLACK RANGE, HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS) OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. RIGHT NOW, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WELL
TO OUR NORTH THUS NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THURSDAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS, THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
..NEXT WEEKEND
BENIGN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW-END BREEZY WIND EACH
AFTERNOON, WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS, EXCEPT AT TCS, WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KNOTS. AFTER SUNRISE, BETWEEN 15-18Z, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SKIES WILL LARGELY BE SCT-BKN250, BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIGHT RAINFALL INTENSITY AND BASES
TO AROUND 150.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL FORM
OVER MEXICO BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE BORDER. ANY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL SUBSIDE SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A RANGE OF
10-15 MPH.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS
MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT BY TUESDAY STARTING A DRY PATTERN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE MID-WEEK ONWARD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 80 57 86 / 20 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 75 49 81 / 40 40 20 10
LAS CRUCES 46 77 50 84 / 30 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 77 50 83 / 30 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 34 57 38 60 / 30 40 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 77 53 83 / 20 40 10 0
SILVER CITY 44 73 48 77 / 20 20 10 0
DEMING 48 81 50 86 / 20 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 49 80 49 84 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 80 59 86 / 30 20 20 0
DELL CITY 45 77 47 85 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 50 83 55 89 / 40 40 20 10
LOMA LINDA 46 74 52 79 / 30 30 20 10
FABENS 51 82 56 87 / 30 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 50 79 54 84 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 80 56 85 / 30 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 79 47 84 / 20 20 10 0
HATCH 47 82 48 86 / 20 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 51 82 54 87 / 20 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 77 49 82 / 30 30 20 10
MAYHILL 38 67 41 73 / 30 40 20 10
MESCALERO 37 67 41 71 / 30 50 30 10
TIMBERON 38 64 41 69 / 30 40 30 10
WINSTON 39 69 40 76 / 10 50 10 10
HILLSBORO 46 76 50 81 / 20 30 10 0
SPACEPORT 44 77 47 83 / 20 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 73 44 76 / 20 30 10 0
HURLEY 42 75 46 80 / 10 20 0 0
CLIFF 45 80 47 83 / 20 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 77 46 80 / 10 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 75 48 79 / 20 20 10 0
ANIMAS 47 81 50 84 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 46 80 48 84 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 80 51 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 77 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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