547
FXUS64 KEPZ 031126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING VORT CENTER SHEARING OUT EAST OF OUR AREA NOW
WITH ATTENDANT DECREASE (ENDING) OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. NEXT UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND UP TO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES UP A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
PLUME WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THE DEEPEST
PART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT, GIVING THE
FAR WESTERN CWA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PWS APPROACHING .8 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, AGAIN MOSTLY
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DECENT MID-LEVEL CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW WILL ALLOW MON/TUE AFTERNOONS TO BECOME BREEZY WITH TUESDAY
MAXING OUT AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN
TROUGH ALLOWING SHOWERS TO END. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SECONDARY
LOW DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR THE BAJA WEDNESDAY, IN PHASE WITH THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT LIFTED OUT EARLIER. THURSDAY TO
REMAIN DRY, BUT THEN MODELS MOVE THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT FRIDAY, IMPORTING SOME MOISTURE UP TO THE
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW LINGERS AROUND THE CHIHUAHUAN
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT PER LATEST MODEL RUNS, LIKELY TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE SE 140-180 AT 08-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO
THE SW 190-230 AT 05-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SCT-BKN250, THEN
SCT-BKN180 WITH VIRGA THIS EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH MOISTURE STILL HIGH. MIN RH 30 TO
40% WITH SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH LEADING TO VERY GOOD
VENTILATION. SMOKE TRANSPORT TO THE NE OVER GNF/LNF.
SOUTHWEST FLOW REESTABLISHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOON 15 TO 25 MPH. EXCELLENT VENT RATES BOTH DAYS.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY, THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, WITH
NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 0.05-0.15 OVER GNF. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK AS CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND DRIER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 84 63 80 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 55 80 57 75 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 80 54 75 / 10 0 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 54 80 56 73 / 10 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 41 57 40 50 / 10 0 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 78 56 74 / 10 0 10 40
SILVER CITY 49 72 46 65 / 10 0 20 50
DEMING 52 82 53 77 / 10 0 10 30
LORDSBURG 51 80 52 72 / 10 0 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 84 63 77 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 53 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 59 88 62 83 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 57 77 57 72 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 59 86 61 81 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 57 82 58 77 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 81 62 76 / 10 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 52 80 53 75 / 10 0 10 30
HATCH 54 83 56 77 / 10 0 10 30
COLUMBUS 57 85 58 79 / 10 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 54 79 57 74 / 10 0 10 20
MAYHILL 46 71 47 64 / 10 0 10 30
MESCALERO 45 68 44 60 / 10 0 20 30
TIMBERON 44 66 45 60 / 10 0 10 20
WINSTON 44 71 42 65 / 10 0 20 50
HILLSBORO 54 77 52 70 / 10 0 10 40
SPACEPORT 49 78 51 73 / 10 0 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 44 72 41 65 / 10 0 20 50
HURLEY 48 75 46 69 / 10 0 20 40
CLIFF 48 78 48 70 / 10 0 20 50
MULE CREEK 46 74 45 67 / 10 0 30 50
FAYWOOD 51 76 48 68 / 10 0 20 40
ANIMAS 52 81 53 74 / 10 0 20 30
HACHITA 52 81 51 75 / 10 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 81 53 75 / 10 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 51 75 51 69 / 0 0 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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