000
FXUS64 KEPZ 091140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY.
- OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND. A TOUCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN CU GROWTH SAT AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. SCATTERED
VIRGA SHOWERS ARE MODELED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IF THE RAIN OVERCOMES
THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OUTSIDE OF ANY
GUSTY (30 MPH) VIRGA SHOWERS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT NUDGES INTO EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SUN,
BRINGING BREEZY E WINDS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION
OVER THE SACS SUN AFTERNOON AND VIRGA SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. 18Z REFS
PAINTBALLS INDICATE THE CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEST SLOPES WILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES WEST,
REACHING AZ BY EARLY MON AM.
WINDS RELAX ON MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD, RESULTING
IN CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD LIMIT MOST CONVECTION THROUGH WED WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
OVER AREA MTNS. THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME MOISTURE IS LIFTED
NORTHWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THU AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM,
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MAIN LOW PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODEST ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR MON DUE TO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VIRGA
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KTCS HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
SHOWER TODAY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30KT. LOW END
BREEZINESS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WINDS WILL START TO
SHIFT NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
GENERALLY LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 5-8% AND 13-20% IN
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS (20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-15 MPH). SOME VIRGA
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND IN
SIERRA COUNTY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS, SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY AND EVEN FAR WEST TX
BEFORE STALLING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH IN SOME MOISTURE TO
THESE AREAS ALLOWING MIN RHS TO INCREASE TO 15-20% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 20-30% IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. MIN RHS ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION, THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
VIRGA SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MORE AREAWIDE COVERAGE. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FRONT MAKES ANOTHER PUSH INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY POST-COLD FRONT, BUT ONLY BY A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES. MIN RHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
(LOWLANDS: 14-22%, MOUNTAINS 20-30%) BUT 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT THAT AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES, LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES (5-10 MPH)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. MIN RHS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CRITICAL IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS (10-15%) AND
NEAR CRITICAL IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS (17-25%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 94 64 90 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 88 55 83 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 55 87 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 65 41 65 / 0 30 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 94 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 93 64 89 / 0 10 0 0
DELL CITY 56 88 54 85 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 92 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 91 65 88 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 62 92 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 95 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 88 58 85 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 54 74 45 78 / 0 40 10 10
MESCALERO 52 75 44 77 / 0 30 0 10
TIMBERON 51 73 43 73 / 0 20 0 0
WINSTON 52 81 47 81 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 63 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 84 49 83 / 0 10 0 0
HURLEY 54 88 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 90 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 58 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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