251
FXUS64 KEPZ 091725
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1125 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY.
- OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..SATURDAY & SUNDAY
UNPRETENTIOUS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST WILL WILL PROMOTE CUMULUS GROWTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS GRANT/SIERRA/OTERO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER, VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST COMMON WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY, WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE.
GENERAL AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST, WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITHIN THE VICINITY OF VIRGA SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS, 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
BY TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/EAST (DEPENDENT ON LOCATION) FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE THE RGV. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST WILL BRING WEAK BUT SOMEWHAT SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL
PROMOTE A SLIGHT (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VIRGA SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, WITH HIGH RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE HOVERING IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH FURTHER WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE WEST OF SLOPES OF AREA
MOUNTAIN CHAINS AND DESERT LOWLAND SKY ISLANDS.
..MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS NM. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX AND LEAD TO LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND,
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE
OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH AS IT
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. MODEST MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, RAIN/STORM
CHANCES DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, BUT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS COULD BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
..THURSDAY & FRIDAY
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO FEW/SCT
AT 10-15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 17-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION. RAINS LAST WEEKEND DROPPED ERC VALUES BELOW 75TH PERCENTILE,
BUT RECENT DRYING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ALLOWED ERC VALUES TO
INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 80TH PERCENTILE.
WEATHER-WISE, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY DUE TO SUB-CRITICAL RH VALUES. RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF WINDS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO LOW-END BREEZY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THE ONLY THING TO NOTE FOR WINDS, IS THE PROGGED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,
WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 63 89 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 88 55 83 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 59 90 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 54 86 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 63 40 64 / 0 30 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 59 94 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 92 63 88 / 0 10 0 0
DELL CITY 56 87 53 85 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 61 91 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 61 84 56 81 / 0 10 10 0
FABENS 61 94 60 91 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 60 91 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 90 64 87 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 89 54 87 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 62 92 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 94 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 87 56 84 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 55 72 44 77 / 0 40 0 20
MESCALERO 53 74 43 76 / 0 30 0 10
TIMBERON 51 72 42 73 / 0 20 0 10
WINSTON 51 80 46 81 / 10 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 63 86 56 85 / 0 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 88 51 87 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 55 87 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 86 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 85 53 84 / 0 10 0 0
ANIMAS 57 91 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 91 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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