202
FNUS74 KEPZ 152308
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEVEN CABINS...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
508 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. TERRAIN
INFLUENCED WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGELINE
AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND ALIGNED DRAINAGES. RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL DROP TO 8 TO 13 PERCENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGELINE AND NORTH FACING SLOPES. AS A RESULT OF THE
GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS, OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 12 AM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-15 PERCENT) WITH FEW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORNING RH VALUES ON THE NORTH SLOPES WILL BE LOWER THAN AREAS ON THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES, DUE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......3 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS DURING THE MORNING AROUND 0600 WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, OR TERRAIN/DRAINAGE DRIVEN WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN FAVORABLY
ALIGNED DRAINAGES COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIXING AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE BELOW 1,000 FT AGL WITH
WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE. WEAK INVERSION WILL BREAK DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH MIXING HEIGHT RISING TO ABOVE
10,000 FEET AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (167700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........3 3 1 2 10 15
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 3 3
TEMP............50 53 62 65 69 70
RH..............27 20 16 13 11 9
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 10 SW 15 SW 20
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 18 23 28
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1300 8400 11100 12300 11200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 18 SW 15 S 12 SW 13 SW 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 21 109 111 136 168
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD EXNT
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-53 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........19-25 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS
700MB JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE CAPITAN MTN RIDGELINE AND ADJACENT
NORTH SLOPES AND FAVORABLY ALIGNED DRAINAGES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE RIDGELINE WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40
MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNRISE, OUT OF THE WEST
AT 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LESS THAN
1,000 FT AGL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (101900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(9800 KNOT-FT) AFTER SUNSET.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........3 3 4 5 5 5
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............68 59 56 54 52 51
RH..............9 10 11 12 14 18
20 FT WIND......SW 20 SW 20 SW 21 W 20 W 20 W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30-40 30-40 30-40 25-35
MIX HGT (FT)....6700 700 600 600 600 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22 SW 23 SW 25 W 26 W 26 W 24
VRATE KT-FT/1K..128 14 14 14 13 11
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 12AM ON SUNDAY.
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
MIXING HEIGHT.......WEAK INVERSION WILL BREAK DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS,
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 10,000 FT AGL
AROUND 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 30
TO 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (47100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (229700
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........5 5 2 3 3 3
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 53 57 60 61 62
RH..............19 19 16 13 12 11
20 FT WIND......W 12 W 15 SW 15 SW 20 SW 25 SW 25
20 FT WIND GUST.20-30 25-35 25-35 25-35 30-40 30-40
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2400 6200 8000 9400 9600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 23 W 29 SW 29 SW 31 SW 33
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 47 155 201 253 278
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 21 MPH.
TUESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
FORECASTER...ROGERS
REQUESTED BY...STEWART TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613769.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STURNERFORESTRY@GMAIL.COM
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