915
FNUS74 KEPZ 161115
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR HUMMINGBIRD FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
515 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
CONTINUED WARM AND VERY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL
SEE BREEZY WINDS, WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SEEING THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS. FUELS HAVE BEEN DRYING THE PAST WEEK OR SO, AND ERCS ARE
NOW APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHTS
AND THE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SUNDAY, AND COULD BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TODAY. MONDAY COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SEE A WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........9 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 23
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (97100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (113600
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............41 44 49 53 57 60 63 65 67 68 70 68
RH..............37 33 28 25 21 18 15 14 13 11 10 9
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 6 6 6 9 9 10 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 18 18 18 24 24 24 28 28 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 20 22 23 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 14 25 39 51 65 80 97 114 126 137 141
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH
DECREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 26 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (130500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO FAIR (50300 KNOT-FT) LATE EVENING
AND DECREASING TO POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............64 60 55 52 50 48 46 44 43 42 41 40
RH..............10 13 16 19 21 24 27 32 36 39 41 42
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.32 32 32 29 29 29 23 23 23 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.9 5.6 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 21 18 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..131 95 50 14 4 5 10 10 9 9 5 3
VENTRATE CAT....VGD GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 39 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 35 TO
36 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (93000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (231100
KNOT-FT) LATE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 43 47 51 55 58 60 62 64 66 65 64
RH..............42 38 31 28 22 18 15 14 13 12 11 12
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 31 31 31 36 36 36 39 39 39
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 2.3 3.3 4.2 4.8 6.0 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.9 7.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 21 23 25 26 29 29 31 33 35 36
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 21 41 65 93 123 150 173 192 207 231 245
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR GD GD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 17 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...E-651
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613499.4/EPZ
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LUKE.CUSOMATO@GMAIL.COM
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