492
FNUS74 KEPZ 161742
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR HUMMINGBIRD...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH,
AND JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FOR MONDAY.
CONTINUED WARM AND VERY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PUSH FIRE CONDITIONS TO CRITICAL. ADDITIONALLY, FUELS HAVE BEEN
DRYING THE PAST WEEK OR SO, AND ERCS ARE APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ARE THE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY, WITH MAX RHS IN THE 25-35%
RANGE. AND TO TOP IT OFF, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY, AND COULD BE UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. MONDAY COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SEE
A WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (84000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (135300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........1 1 1
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
TEMP............67 68 66
RH..............15 12 10
20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 11 SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.22 25 27
MIX HGT (FT)....6000 6800 6400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 20 SW 24
VRATE KT-FT/1K..84 115 135
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD VYGD VYGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (132400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (36200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........3 3 2 3 3 4
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............63 59 53 48 45 41
RH..............11 13 19 26 32 39
20 FT WIND......SW 15 SW 15 W 13 W 11 W 11 SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.29 29 25 24 24 21
MIX HGT (FT)....6000 2100 600 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 25 SW 20 W 16 W 17 W 15 W 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..132 36 9 10 8 4
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH INCREASING TO 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 37
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (85200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (224200
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........2 1 1 6
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............39 49 58 61
RH..............42 30 17 14
20 FT WIND......SW 10G21 SW 12G25 SW 15G33 SW 19G36
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2900 5100 6500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 SW 24 SW 31 SW 36
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 60 139 201
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 19 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...NMSCD
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613795.1/EPZ
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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