425
FNUS74 KEPZ 162257
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEVEN CABINS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
457 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WIND INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AFTER 10 AM SUNDAY, BECOMING
SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER THE CAPITAN
RIDGELINE. STRONGEST AFTERNOON WIND WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIDGE
AND SOUTHERN ASPECTS, WITH THE NORTH FACE AND SEVEN CABINS CANYON
SLIGHTLY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGER GUSTS. STILL, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DOWN-CANYON FIRE GROWTH.
HUMIDITY 5 TO 10% ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EXTREMELY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES WITHIN SEVEN
CABINS CANYON AND RH REMAINS VERY LOW 10 TO 15%. FIRE BEHAVIOR
MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE ACTIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING THAN ANY OTHER TIME. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
LONG DURATION RED FLAG EVENT, LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
VERY SIMILAR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. AGAIN,
STRONGER WINDS AROUND US-380 AND THE CAPITAN RIDGELINE, WITH SOME
SHELTERING WITHIN THE NORTH FACING CANYONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF
EASTERN NM. WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ERRATIC
WINDS LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY-FRIDAY).
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 32
TO 38 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (235200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........3 3 1 2 2 1
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 53 56 60 61 61
RH..............21 21 18 14 12 11
20 FT WIND......W 21 W 21 SW 20 SW 19 SW 19 SW 24
20 FT WIND GUST.43 43 40 43 43 49
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2500 4500 7000 8100 8300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 21 W 24 SW 25 SW 29 SW 32 SW 38
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 55 114 174 235 266
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR VYGD EXNT EXNT EXNT
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 38 MPH DECREASING TO 26 TO 28
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (166000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(0 KNOT-FT) OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........3 3 5 6 6 5
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............60 58 56 54 53 51
RH..............12 13 14 15 19 21
20 FT WIND......SW 25 SW 25 SW 24 SW 24 SW 24 SW 23
20 FT WIND GUST.49 49 48 48 48 46
MIX HGT (FT)....7100 800 700 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 38 SW 30 SW 28 SW 28 SW 26 SW 28
VRATE KT-FT/1K..236 82 0 14 14 8
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 52 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 37 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (14500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (244200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........29 4 5 3
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 51 57 60
RH..............23 17 14 14
20 FT WIND......SW 23G48 SW 24G49 SW 22G48 SW 25G52
MIX HGT (FT)....600 3700 5400 7200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 35 SW 37 SW 37
VRATE KT-FT/1K..15 111 174 231
VENTRATE CAT....POOR VYGD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
12 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
FORECASTER...DENNHARDT
REQUESTED BY...STEWART TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613835.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STURNERFORESTRY@GMAIL.COM
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