549
FXUS64 KEPZ 240403
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMUP OVER THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MEMORIAL
DAY, WITH LINGERING CHANCES TUESDAY OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
OLD UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA THAT DRIFTED EAST TO NEAR THE MEXICAN
CHIHUAHUAN DESERT HAS DISSIPATED WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNS OF LIFE
LEFT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. IN ITS PLACE, WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN TERMS OF BOTH DEWPOINT AND PW, HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT
SHOULD START SEEING A SLIGHT UPTICK ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WILL START INFLUENCING
THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AS IT NEARS THE BAJA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
DEWPOINTS DO RISE SLIGHTLY, AND SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
LEAD SHORT-WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHES FAR SOUTHWEST NM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY, GIVING THE NM BOOTHEEL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY EVENING. THUS WILL
TAILOR GRID POPS WITH THIS IN MIND.
MONDAY LOOKS BETTER AREA WIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW
ROTATES INTO ARIZONA AND THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTS NORTHWARD TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASES, THE EAST FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA, AND THE WEST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SO THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. CAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 300-700 J/KG AND PWS RISE AS HIGH AS .80 INCHES. SO
RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE AREA WIDE; NOT MUCH SHEAR TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT, BUT THE CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG IN THE EAST. FOR AREAS FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST THE WINDOW
FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR AREAS TO
THE WEST THE WINDOW IS SMALLER-LIKELY JUST THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET BRINGS DRY-SLOTTING JUST NORTH OF IT INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. DRY-SLOTTING OVERTAKES MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY, BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND IN THE FAR EAST SO OTERO/HUDSPETH
COUNTIES COULD STILL SEE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES IN OVER NEVADA. THE LOW MOVES
VERY SLOWLY, STILL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY. HENCE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. GFS DOES SHOW SMALL BREAK-OFF
LOW MOVING TO JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA SATURDAY, DRAWING THE DRY-LINE
INTO THE EASTERN CWA AND SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AS THE ECMWF/CMC GIVE VERY
LITTLE ATTENTION TO THIS FEATURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-FEW120.
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z...SCT-BKN100. SLIGHT CHANCE OF BKN080
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 19Z-01Z. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS. AFTER 18Z WINDS INCREASING TO SOUTH 10-15
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH 8-15% AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING WITH HEIGHTS
12K-13K FEET AND SCATTERED CUMULUS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. VERY
GOOD VENTILATION WITH TRANSPORT TO THE NNE. NO OVERNIGHT WEATHER
CONCERNS.
INCREASED SURFACE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY 20-30% ALONG WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVERAGE. MOISTURE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED (60-80%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST AND THE CAPITAN
RANGE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC, SUDDEN OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND
STORMS. RAIN RATES WILL BE ON THE LOWER END DUE IN PART TO A MORE
SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE, THUS LOWER THAN USUAL RISK FOR
BURN SCAR FLOODING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LNF AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REST OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BECOMING DRY AGAIN.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH THE RETURN OF DRY AIR AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAGS NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 50
SIERRA BLANCA 56 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 60
LAS CRUCES 54 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 50
ALAMOGORDO 58 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 60
CLOUDCROFT 46 72 47 69 / 0 20 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 90 63 83 / 0 0 0 60
SILVER CITY 52 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 60
DEMING 56 94 61 90 / 0 0 0 30
LORDSBURG 55 90 61 86 / 0 0 20 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 50
DELL CITY 55 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 60
FORT HANCOCK 60 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 60
LOMA LINDA 58 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 60
FABENS 58 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 50
SANTA TERESA 56 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 92 71 89 / 0 0 0 60
JORNADA RANGE 51 91 57 87 / 0 0 0 50
HATCH 56 94 62 89 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 61 93 67 90 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 53 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 60
MAYHILL 49 82 52 80 / 0 20 10 60
MESCALERO 49 81 50 78 / 0 10 10 80
TIMBERON 47 78 49 76 / 0 10 10 70
WINSTON 49 82 52 75 / 0 0 0 70
HILLSBORO 58 88 62 82 / 0 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 50 90 55 85 / 0 0 0 50
LAKE ROBERTS 43 85 47 78 / 0 0 0 70
HURLEY 51 87 57 81 / 0 0 0 50
CLIFF 45 90 47 84 / 0 0 10 80
MULE CREEK 39 86 41 80 / 0 0 30 80
FAYWOOD 53 86 59 81 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 56 89 60 87 / 0 0 20 30
HACHITA 56 90 61 87 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 89 60 88 / 0 0 20 20
CLOVERDALE 55 83 58 82 / 0 0 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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