381
FXUS64 KEPZ 271750
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1150 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- FOR THE LAST 5 DAYS OF MAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
SEASONAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE REGION, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS IN EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY DUE TO SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE. A NEW INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE DRYLINE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF HIGH-ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO RETURN ON THURSDAY, LEAVING
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REGION TO HOVER AT OR BELOW 90, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN, BRINGING MORE DRY, WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY CLEAR FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY. AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS
TO JUNE, MONDAY WILL SEE DRY, WARM AIR THANKS TO MODEL RUNS
SHOWING A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT
WITH THAT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
GENERALLY SKC-FEW120 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TCU EAST OF KELP. SURFACE
WINDS 190-230 AT 05-10 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS W NM
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A MOISTURE
INTRUSION SHIFTING KELP WINDS TO 060-090 AOB 08 KNOTS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, DIVIDING NEW MEXICO BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE WEST AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GILA NF INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH
10 TO 15%. WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOISTURE OVER LINCOLN NF WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED (20-40%)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE CAPITAN
RANGE AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO'S MOISTURE PUSHED FURTHER EAST. MIN RH 5-12% AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA. OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT ERC STATUS SHOWS BOTH GNF/LNF AT 90TH
PERCENTILE DRYNESS, INDICATING FUELS VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
POTENTIAL RAINS OVER LNF MAY LEAD TO RAPIDLY DECREASING ERCS NEXT
WEEK IF STORM COVERAGE IS HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 69 92 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 56 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 90 63 88 / 0 10 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 68 47 66 / 0 20 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 90 59 89 / 0 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 96 66 95 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 59 85 61 84 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 61 95 64 93 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 59 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 89 61 87 / 0 10 20 10
MAYHILL 48 78 52 77 / 0 20 30 20
MESCALERO 47 78 51 76 / 0 20 30 10
TIMBERON 47 75 48 73 / 0 20 40 20
WINSTON 45 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT/41-ZOTTER
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