530
FXUS64 KEPZ 290441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY
BEING THE WARMEST DAY; EL PASO METRO AREA AND THE LOWER VALLEY
COULD APPROACH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS THAT DAY.
- STARTING TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STORM CHANCES, WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WAS TODAY WE MADE THE MOST OF IT, BUT
SINCE THE MOISTURE WAS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES THAT IS WHERE THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINED. ALL
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF AND WE WILL HAVE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WE LOOK TO STAY DRY, THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LURK
JUST TO OUR EAST. WE WILL SEE DAILY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST, BUT I'M NOT EXPECTING GUSTS
MUCH GREATER THAN 30 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EL
PASO AND PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY FLIRTING WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK. EL PASO HAS A 40 TO 50% CHANCE TO HIT 100 ON MONDAY AND
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEY LIKE FABENS AND TORNILLO HAVE ODDS
OF 60 TO 80% OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
ON TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP 4 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
ALL THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF AND THE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250 THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE
WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT TONIGHT, BUT MORE GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
THE WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE SAW TODAY,
BUT STILL NOT SEEING IMPACTS LIKE STRONG GUSTS OR BLOWING DUST.
THE GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
DROPPING OFF A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING
MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SACS/CAPITANS, THREATENING THE
SEVEN CABINS FIRE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. LOWER CHANCE (~10%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF THE SACS INTO
THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODESTLY BREEZY S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH RHS NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS HIGH
CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS ON FRI, BRINGING BREEZY SW WINDS (10-20 MPH AT 20 FEET)
AND ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS, LESS SO FOR FAR WEST TX. SAT-MON
WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER W-SW WINDS, ALLOWING FUELS TO WORSEN.
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON TUE, BRINGING RAIN/STORM CHANCES. TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOLDING AROUND NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-30% IN FWZ113 TODAY, 6-20% ELSEWHERE; THEN
5-15% AREA-WIDE. VENT RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 90 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 89 62 88 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 66 47 66 / 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 61 93 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 91 61 91 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 64 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 94 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 90 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 88 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 53 78 53 79 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 52 76 51 76 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 74 48 74 / 20 10 0 0
WINSTON 49 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 54 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 87 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 84 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 88 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 88 54 87 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 88 55 88 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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