656
FXUS64 KEPZ 291042
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
442 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE COUNTIES ALONG THE INTL BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY; EL PASO METRO AREA AND THE LOWER VALLEY COULD
APPROACH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS THAT DAY.
- STARTING TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STORM CHANCES, WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WAS TODAY WE MADE THE MOST OF IT, BUT
SINCE THE MOISTURE WAS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES THAT IS WHERE THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINED. ALL
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF AND WE WILL HAVE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WE LOOK TO STAY DRY, THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LURK
JUST TO OUR EAST. WE WILL SEE DAILY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST, BUT I'M NOT EXPECTING GUSTS
MUCH GREATER THAN 30 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EL
PASO AND PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY FLIRTING WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK. EL PASO HAS A 40 TO 50% CHANCE TO HIT 100 ON MONDAY AND
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEY LIKE FABENS AND TORNILLO HAVE ODDS
OF 60 TO 80% OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
ON TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP 4 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN120 BKN-OVC250. A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z, MAINLY FROM
THE RG VALLEY EAST. OTHERWISE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST
TO MAINLY SCT250 AFTER 00Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS
THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15-20G35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING SOME MID EVENING, BUT GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS COULD CONTINUE ALONG EAST SLOPES OF TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND
09Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN
DONA ANA, EL PASO, AND WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES BUT POOR
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY AS WE SEE A
BREEZY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MIN RHS JUST MEETING CRITERIA
TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA. THE SOUTHWEST
LOWLANDS LOOK TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DON'T THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MONDAY AS WE TRADE LESS WIND FOR DRIER (LOWER RH)
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING IN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
GIVE THE FIRE ZONES A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING
RAIN.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS AND GILA/BLACK RANGE MTS...10-15% TODAY,
DECREASING TO 7-12% SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 12-20% TUESDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...15-25% TODAY DECREASING TO 10-15%
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 25-35% TUESDAY. VENT RATES VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 91 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 89 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 88 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 90 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 91 55 96 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 89 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 91 56 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 95 63 100 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 84 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 92 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 89 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 89 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 91 54 96 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 88 52 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 80 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 77 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 82 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 88 50 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 81 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 83 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 86 46 92 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 81 41 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 83 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 88 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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