388
FXUS64 KEPZ 120430
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- MOISTURE WILL GIVE THE AREA SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS
WEEKEND. TRENDING DRY AND HOT AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
LOOKS LIKE OUR WEATHER PATTERNS ARE SLOWING DOWN JUST A LITTLE.
WE HAD HOPED TO HAVE SUB 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AS MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE REGION, BUT THE MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE MOISTURE INFLUX SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH
WILL ALLOW A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO HIT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
BOTH AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND TO BE HONEST, WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EAST OF OUR REGION, THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA. WHAT WE MAY SEE THOUGH IS
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE STORMS TO OUR EAST LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.25) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE.
STARTING TUESDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO TO DRY US OUT AND HEAT THINGS BACK UP. THE EXTENDED
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH USUALLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IS
ACTUALLY TRENDING HIGHER WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SURE SIGN THE THE EXTENDED
MODELS SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR US NEXT WEEK. IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN
WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
WE WILL SEE A QUIET NIGHT AS THE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AND THE
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND UNLIMITED CEILING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH ACROSS
KELP AND KLRU FRIDAY EVENING, SO I HAVE MENTIONED THAT IN THOSE
TWO TAFS. LIKE TODAY WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW WINDS.
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS MIN RHS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-10%, ESPECIALLY UP IN GILA
NATIONAL FOREST. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10
MPH. VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT. DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED TODAY. MIN RHS WILL TREND UP TO 20-35% THROUGH
MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING RELIEF TO THE
VERY LOW RHS ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL
MAINLY BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN NATIONAL
FOREST, THEN THEY WILL SPREAD TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FORECAST TRENDS DRY AND HOT AGAIN MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 75 102 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 64 95 / 0 50 20 10
LAS CRUCES 68 99 68 100 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 68 98 / 0 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 51 78 / 0 50 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 71 98 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 62 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 69 103 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 73 100 / 0 10 10 0
DELL CITY 69 97 65 99 / 0 40 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 71 102 / 0 30 20 10
LOMA LINDA 69 93 66 93 / 0 20 20 0
FABENS 72 102 70 103 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 75 100 / 0 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 99 68 99 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 68 103 69 102 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 75 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 66 97 / 0 20 10 0
MAYHILL 59 85 57 88 / 0 60 20 50
MESCALERO 57 87 55 88 / 0 50 10 20
TIMBERON 56 83 52 84 / 0 40 20 20
WINSTON 60 91 61 90 / 0 10 0 20
HILLSBORO 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 64 99 65 98 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 64 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 99 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 95 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 67 97 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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