457
FXUS64 KEPZ 121741
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1141 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
- SUNDAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN REACHES OF OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE FELT BY THE
METRO AREA THIS EVENING FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. NONETHELESS, THE
LOWLANDS WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS THE SLOWING MOISTURE INFLUX OVERHEAD WILL GIVE A FEW
SPOTS SOME TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
CHANGE (SMALL, TO SAY THE LEAST) IN WIND DIRECTION AS WESTERLY
FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY, BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERHEAD (PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.25). EVER JUST
THE SAME, THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR 30-40KT,
WE COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO GIVE US SOME HEAT RELIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP UNDER THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A NEW AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND EVER AS BEFORE, AND EVER JUST AS SURE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BORDERLAND MIDWEEK. WHETHER ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS AT 10KT WITH GUSTS OF 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN250 WITH SOME FEW-SCT090 POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING AS MOISTURE RAISES THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE -TSRA/SHRA IN
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ANY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS WILL GUST UP TO 35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS EVENING. VENTILATION RATES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANGE FROM GOOD OUT EAST TO EXCELLENT OUT WEST INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING HOT AND DRY MIDWEEK.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OUT
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 102 76 97 / 0 0 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 63 95 66 91 / 30 10 10 50
LAS CRUCES 68 100 69 96 / 0 0 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 67 98 70 94 / 10 0 20 70
CLOUDCROFT 50 77 52 70 / 10 20 30 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 98 70 93 / 0 20 20 20
SILVER CITY 63 92 62 91 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 68 103 69 100 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 66 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 100 74 96 / 0 0 20 30
DELL CITY 64 98 66 91 / 30 10 20 50
FORT HANCOCK 69 102 72 99 / 20 10 10 30
LOMA LINDA 64 93 67 87 / 10 0 10 30
FABENS 68 103 71 99 / 10 0 10 20
SANTA TERESA 67 99 70 95 / 0 0 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 100 76 95 / 0 10 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 67 99 68 95 / 0 10 20 40
HATCH 68 102 69 99 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 64 97 67 92 / 10 0 10 40
MAYHILL 55 88 56 76 / 20 50 30 80
MESCALERO 54 88 56 79 / 10 20 20 80
TIMBERON 51 84 54 77 / 20 20 20 70
WINSTON 51 89 57 85 / 0 20 10 50
HILLSBORO 67 96 67 92 / 0 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 65 98 65 94 / 0 20 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 54 93 57 91 / 0 10 10 30
HURLEY 63 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 54 98 59 98 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 48 93 61 93 / 0 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 64 95 65 92 / 0 10 0 20
ANIMAS 65 97 65 96 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 65 98 66 97 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 97 65 96 / 0 20 20 30
CLOVERDALE 62 91 61 90 / 0 10 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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