786
FXUS64 KEPZ 131740
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1140 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SUNDAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES RETURNING MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS FOR MID JUNE. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL BE GRADUALLY BROKEN DOWN WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE NW US. WE ALREADY
HAVE HAD SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE
AN UNUSUAL JUNE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL BRING SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE
RGV. MOST MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS, THE HRRR IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
BUT TRENDING TOWARD A BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. LOOKING LIKE
WE WILL GET MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE THAT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF ABOUT
30-35KTS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY
SOME OUTFLOWS FROM MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS AND THERE IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AN MCV MAY DEVELOP WITH A SECONDARY
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. EVEN THE EC, WHICH HAS A HARD TIME OF
PRODUCING QPF AFTER 06Z IN THIS AREA KEEPS STORMS GOING. THE
THREAT HERE IS LIKELY MORE HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE UNDER 5KTS.
FOR MONDAY, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS AROUND THE AREA, BUT
ASSUMING STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, THINK IT WILL
BE A MORE DOWN DAY DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER FOR AT
LEAST THE EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
ABOVE THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS, COOLEST EAST AND
WARMEST WEST. STILL KEPT IN SOME ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUE/WED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 100-105 RANGE,
POSSIBLY WARMER ALONG THE RGV WED/THU BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
IS THE WARMEST OF IT'S ENSEMBLES. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SUPPORTS
EASILY BREAKING 100 THOUGH. SOME MOISTURE LOOKS TO CREEP BACK IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THU/FRI WITH BEST CHANCES BEING WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT100-150 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ONTO THE LOWLANDS, MAINLY
SIERRA, DONA ANA AND OTERO COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z THEN MOVING INTO
FAR WEST TX FROM 03-06Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS IS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THESE STORMS AND CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AT KTCS WHERE I INCLUDED A
PROB30, CONFIDENCE LESS FOR OTHER TERMINALS AND DID NOT MENTION.
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH RH'S ABOVE
15-20% AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN STARTING TUESDAY
WITH LOWLANDS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RH'S WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 94 67 89 / 20 40 50 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 89 62 82 / 20 50 60 40
LAS CRUCES 73 93 64 88 / 20 40 60 20
ALAMOGORDO 71 92 64 87 / 20 60 60 20
CLOUDCROFT 53 66 48 66 / 20 70 60 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 90 66 88 / 20 40 50 20
SILVER CITY 66 89 59 86 / 10 10 30 30
DEMING 72 96 65 93 / 10 20 30 20
LORDSBURG 69 95 66 93 / 10 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 93 68 88 / 20 50 60 10
DELL CITY 67 84 63 85 / 20 40 70 20
FORT HANCOCK 72 96 68 90 / 20 40 70 30
LOMA LINDA 70 84 62 80 / 20 30 70 20
FABENS 73 95 67 90 / 10 40 80 10
SANTA TERESA 73 92 65 87 / 20 50 50 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 92 70 87 / 20 50 70 20
JORNADA RANGE 72 92 64 88 / 20 50 70 20
HATCH 72 96 64 91 / 20 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 75 96 69 92 / 10 20 40 10
OROGRANDE 68 89 63 85 / 20 40 80 10
MAYHILL 56 72 54 76 / 20 70 80 50
MESCALERO 57 76 53 77 / 20 60 50 50
TIMBERON 55 74 50 72 / 20 60 70 50
WINSTON 56 82 55 82 / 20 40 40 40
HILLSBORO 68 89 63 86 / 10 30 40 50
SPACEPORT 67 92 61 87 / 20 50 60 20
LAKE ROBERTS 51 89 56 87 / 10 20 40 40
HURLEY 66 92 60 88 / 10 10 30 30
CLIFF 59 95 63 91 / 10 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 61 91 61 89 / 10 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 66 90 62 86 / 10 20 30 50
ANIMAS 66 94 65 92 / 20 10 30 10
HACHITA 67 95 63 92 / 20 10 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 93 64 91 / 20 20 30 10
CLOVERDALE 63 88 62 86 / 20 30 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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