019
FXUS64 KEPZ 141134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- TODAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONVERGING JUST EAST OF EL PASO AND OVER THE
TULAROSA BASIN ARE FINDING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD TRY AND POP UP HERE AND THERE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE IN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL, AS ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR (IT'S QUITE THE MESS OUT THERE WITH
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES!)
OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE SACRAMENTOS, OTERO MESA, AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED, PERHAPS
OVER THE OTERO MESA AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW (SUNDAY) EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AS STEADIER EAST FLOW ENHANCES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS NEW MEXICO, EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WILL HELP
TRIGGER AND FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S A FAIR CHANCE WE COULD SET THINGS UP FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MESILLA VALLEY AND EL
PASO AREA.
SPOTTIER CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WE STAY IN
FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SONORA AND ARIZONA.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE BACK IN FROM TUESDAY.
WED (AND PERHAPS THU) WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS IN
EL PASO AND AND DOWN THE LOWER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY (TCS/LRU/ELP). +RA AND GUSTY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STORMS, BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH BASES
100-250 (LOWER IN STORMS) WHILE WINDS TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST THOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FOR TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TEENS OUT
WEST TO AROUND 30% IN EASTERN LOWLANDS WITH HIGHER MINIMUM
HUMIDITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH, AND VENTING WILL MOSTLY
RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS SUNDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AND HOTTER AIR RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THEREAFTER, WE
WILL SEE A SLOW MOISTENING AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 92 72 98 / 60 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 86 63 92 / 70 40 20 0
LAS CRUCES 64 90 64 96 / 50 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 90 66 96 / 60 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 69 50 75 / 40 40 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 91 67 97 / 40 30 10 0
SILVER CITY 61 89 60 92 / 20 30 10 0
DEMING 65 97 65 101 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 67 95 66 98 / 20 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 91 70 97 / 60 20 20 0
DELL CITY 63 88 63 95 / 60 40 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 94 69 99 / 70 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 63 84 64 90 / 50 20 20 0
FABENS 68 93 68 99 / 60 20 30 0
SANTA TERESA 66 90 66 96 / 50 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 91 71 96 / 60 10 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 90 64 96 / 50 10 10 0
HATCH 65 94 64 99 / 50 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 69 96 70 100 / 30 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 63 88 64 94 / 60 20 20 0
MAYHILL 54 79 55 86 / 50 60 10 20
MESCALERO 53 80 54 85 / 50 30 10 0
TIMBERON 50 76 51 81 / 60 40 20 10
WINSTON 56 85 56 89 / 30 30 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 89 63 94 / 40 50 10 10
SPACEPORT 61 90 61 95 / 50 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 89 55 93 / 20 40 0 0
HURLEY 61 91 61 95 / 20 30 10 0
CLIFF 63 95 61 98 / 10 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 61 91 60 94 / 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 62 89 62 93 / 20 50 10 0
ANIMAS 66 95 65 97 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 64 95 65 97 / 20 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 94 65 96 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 62 89 62 90 / 20 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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