153
FXUS64 KEPZ 151130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY, THOUGH
THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK.
- SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SEEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ONE OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS I'VE SEEN AT EPZ
STRUCK THIS PAST EVENING, DUMPING 1.89 INCHES OF RAIN, AND
PRODUCING GUSTS OF 68 MPH. LUCKILY THE WORST OF THAT CELL STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE SUBURBAN AREAS OF SANTA TERESA AND WEST EL PASO,
OTHERWISE WE'D HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HIGHER-END FLOODING.
STORMS DID LATER SPREAD EAST INTO URBAN EL PASO, PRODUCING MOSTLY
LOW-END FLOODING IN THE USUAL PLACES, BUT ALSO A GUST TO 74 MPH AT
THE AIRPORT. MUCH LIKE OUR GUST AT SANTA T, THIS SEEMED TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED IN AREA, AND WE'VE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE.
PICTURES HAVE CIRCULATED SHOWING LARGE CULVERTS STREWN ACROSS THE
I-10 GATEWAY BLVD NEAR AIRWAY, BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF WIND OR
WATER DEPOSITED THEM THERE.
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ARCING BACK FROM THE LOWER
VALLEY INTO THE BLACK RANGE. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS. WE'VE SEEN SOME INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
AT GAUGES IN LAS CRUCES JUST UNDER 1 INCH PER HOUR, BUT IT DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE LASTING LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH WORRY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL HAVE SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO TOWARDS
DAWN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
STORMS LOOK TO START IN THE GILA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AGAIN, WITH
SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AGAIN, SPREADING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY (WE HAD 45
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE 00Z RAOB), BUT SOME OF OUR MORE
DUST-PRONE AREAS MAY BE IMPACTED NEAR AND WEST OF DMN.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SEEPING IN FROM THE SIERRA MADRES INTO SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. A GULF SURGE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO IMPROVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST OF THE
DIVIDE, AND SOME OF THIS WILL SPILL INTO SW NM ON WESTERLY FLOW
MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE
A LITTLE IN DOUBT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
FAVORING THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH BASES AS LOW AS 050.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE IS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL RANGE NEAR 20% AT THE ARIZONA BORDER TO WELL OVER
30% IN HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH HIGHER VALUES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW.
HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARD THE AZ BORDER WILL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP IN. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 99 76 105 / 40 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 93 65 99 / 60 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 96 68 101 / 50 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 96 69 102 / 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 75 53 79 / 50 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 97 70 101 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 92 63 91 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 64 101 70 102 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 98 68 97 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 98 75 102 / 40 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 96 65 104 / 40 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 99 71 105 / 40 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 90 67 96 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 68 99 72 106 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 96 71 101 / 40 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 96 75 102 / 50 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 96 66 100 / 50 0 0 0
HATCH 63 99 67 103 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 100 76 100 / 50 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 95 66 100 / 40 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 86 59 91 / 30 0 0 0
MESCALERO 53 86 57 90 / 40 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 82 54 87 / 30 10 0 0
WINSTON 56 89 60 92 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 93 67 97 / 20 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 61 96 63 100 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 93 57 93 / 20 0 0 10
HURLEY 60 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 98 62 97 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 59 93 61 92 / 30 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 62 93 66 94 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 97 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 98 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 96 66 96 / 20 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 61 91 62 90 / 30 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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