944
FXUS64 KEPZ 161135
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
535 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS, PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SEEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
A LONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ROLLING JUST EAST
OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
BEFORE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, OTHER THAN A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL BE DRIER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES TICKING UP TOWARDS THE
100 MARK AT ELP.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND INCREASING WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. THE GFS EVEN HAS A <990MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE W TO NW
FLOW OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FETCH OFF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FEED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW
NEW MEXICO, WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE. MEANWHILE,
THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES WILL INDUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING, AND
TEMPS AT ELP MAY REACH 105 AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO NOSE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY, WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NM,
AS THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO FEED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT, AND THIS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR
HIGH TEMPS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
FOR FRIDAY, WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW LOOKING TO MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 100S AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT(100-250). LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE COME W'LY THIS AFTERNOON (250-280) WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, AFTER 6Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH. VENTING WILL RANGE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, TOPPING OUT AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WHILE MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY AND CREEP INTO AREAS ADJACENT TO THE AZ
BORDER, WHICH WILL MITIGATE SOME FIRE CONCERNS WHILE ALSO BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTHERN GILA INTO THE
BLACK RANGE AND INTO THE MIMBRES VALLEY WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF
WIND AND RH VALUES NEAR CRITICAL, BUT AT THIS TIME, IT ONLY
APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE MET ON A SMALL SCALE, NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG ISSUANCE. ERCS ARE ALSO A BIT WETTER
THAN NORMAL.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WEDNESDAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN GILA AND
SW LOWLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY, WHICH MAY BRING AN ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING RISK. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED TO EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING NEXT WEEKEND,
LEAVING A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 81 103 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 100 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 102 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 66 92 64 89 / 0 50 10 40
DEMING 71 101 71 100 / 0 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 97 68 95 / 0 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 67 103 71 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 105 77 103 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 74 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 72 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 101 69 99 / 0 10 0 20
HATCH 69 104 70 102 / 0 20 0 10
COLUMBUS 77 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 101 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 60 91 63 89 / 10 0 0 40
MESCALERO 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 54 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 61 92 63 91 / 0 20 0 30
HILLSBORO 69 98 69 96 / 0 40 0 30
SPACEPORT 65 101 66 99 / 0 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 93 58 90 / 0 50 10 50
HURLEY 67 95 65 93 / 0 40 0 30
CLIFF 63 98 64 95 / 0 40 10 30
MULE CREEK 60 93 62 91 / 0 40 10 20
FAYWOOD 69 94 67 92 / 0 40 0 40
ANIMAS 67 97 65 95 / 0 30 0 10
HACHITA 68 97 66 95 / 0 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 66 93 / 0 30 0 10
CLOVERDALE 63 90 61 88 / 20 30 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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