773
FXUS64 KEPZ 170502
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS, PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND THE GILA REGION
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEW MEXICO LOWLAND DESERTS IN THE
EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RATHER A COMPLICATED LOOKING DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LOOKS TO INDUCE RATHER STRONG LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN NM, WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A 988 MB
LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID-AFTERNOON. DRIER NW FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WITH
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN BETWEEN, STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GILA REGION INTO SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA, WHERE THE NW FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE THE WESTERLIES WILL KEEP MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MODERATED OVER ARIZONA. NW FLOW WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER-100S AGAIN.
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
BY MID-MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IN THE NM BOOTHEEL,
WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN BETWEEN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DUST ISSUES ON I-10, ESPECIALLY WEST OF LORDSBURG.
BROADER OUTFLOW-ENHANCED WESTERLIES LOOK TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE IN THE EVENING AS WELL, POSSIBLY BRINGING IN SOME DUST,
DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS.
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH
A NARROWING DRY WEDGE OVER THE GILA AND SIERRA LAKES REGION. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION LOOKS
TO FIRE UP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AGAIN, AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY AND ELP, AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WILL BE A SECONDARY FOCAL POINT FOR STORMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO ONLY COOL BY A COUPLE DEGREES.
DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY. THEY MAY LINGER IN THE SACRAMENTOS
FOR SATURDAY, BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES OUT ALONG
THE US/MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
STEADY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH ELP VARYING BETWEEN
GUSTY WEST WINDS (AROUND 25 KNOTS) OR LIGHT WINDS WITH LLWS. WINDS
WILL GET A BOOST IN THE MID-MORNING HOURS WITH A BIT OF MIXING,
BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION AND THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
WILL COME CLOSE TO DMN, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
DUST WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN DUST AT ELP IS LIMITED, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING, EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WE WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MIN RH'S THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR
20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT MIN RH'S WILL STILL RUN IN THE
MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, WE
WILL SEE VERY LOW MIN RH'S NEAR 5% IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE LOW
TEENS IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DRY MIN RH'S WILL GIVE US NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 105 80 102 / 0 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 65 100 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 101 72 99 / 0 20 30 50
ALAMOGORDO 70 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 54 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 102 74 100 / 0 20 10 20
SILVER CITY 64 92 64 90 / 0 50 40 50
DEMING 70 102 71 100 / 0 20 30 20
LORDSBURG 69 97 68 95 / 0 20 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 77 99 / 0 10 20 20
DELL CITY 66 103 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 68 96 71 94 / 0 0 10 20
FABENS 72 105 75 102 / 0 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 100 73 98 / 0 10 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 77 100 / 0 0 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 67 102 70 99 / 0 10 20 30
HATCH 69 104 71 102 / 0 30 30 20
COLUMBUS 77 101 75 99 / 0 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 67 101 69 99 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 59 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 57 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 60
TIMBERON 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 61 93 63 91 / 0 20 20 40
HILLSBORO 69 98 69 96 / 0 30 20 30
SPACEPORT 65 101 67 99 / 0 10 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 58 93 59 91 / 0 60 40 60
HURLEY 66 95 65 93 / 0 30 40 30
CLIFF 64 98 65 96 / 0 40 30 50
MULE CREEK 63 93 63 91 / 0 40 30 40
FAYWOOD 68 95 68 93 / 0 30 30 30
ANIMAS 67 96 65 95 / 0 50 50 10
HACHITA 68 97 66 95 / 0 20 50 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 66 93 / 0 40 30 0
CLOVERDALE 63 90 61 88 / 10 50 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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