158
FXUS64 KEPZ 171113
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
513 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS, PEAKING
TODAY, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND THE GILA REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEW MEXICO LOWLAND DESERTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY, WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RATHER A COMPLICATED LOOKING DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LOOKS TO INDUCE RATHER STRONG LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN NM, WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A 988 MB
LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID-AFTERNOON. DRIER NW FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WITH
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN BETWEEN, STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GILA REGION INTO SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA, WHERE THE NW FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE THE WESTERLIES WILL KEEP MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MODERATED OVER ARIZONA. NW FLOW WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER-100S AGAIN.
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
BY MID-MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IN THE NM BOOTHEEL,
WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN BETWEEN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DUST ISSUES ON I-10, ESPECIALLY WEST OF LORDSBURG.
BROADER OUTFLOW-ENHANCED WESTERLIES LOOK TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE IN THE EVENING AS WELL, POSSIBLY BRINGING IN SOME DUST,
DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS.
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH
A NARROWING DRY WEDGE OVER THE GILA AND SIERRA LAKES REGION. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION LOOKS
TO FIRE UP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AGAIN, AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY AND ELP, AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WILL BE A SECONDARY FOCAL POINT FOR STORMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO ONLY COOL BY A COUPLE DEGREES.
DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY. THEY MAY LINGER IN THE SACRAMENTOS
FOR SATURDAY, BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES OUT ALONG
THE US/MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED BKN-OVC060CB
4-6SM -TSRA. STORMS SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z. SURFACE
WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 10-15G25 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS ALONG
EAST SLOPES OF TERRAIN UNTIL 15Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OF 40-50 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. AN AWW FOR KELP MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND NOON
AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FIRE ZONES LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT OF WEST/NORTHWEST 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TO ZONES 110/111 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE, RED
FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY BE MET OUT WEST, BUT BY AFTERNOON
STORM OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH ADDING TO THE WIND GUSTINESS, WILL ALSO
RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT BUT GOOD NOCTURNAL RH RECOVERY SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ANY FIRE CONCERNS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN
THURSDAY, AND IN A MORE LIMITED ROLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY-WELL ABOVE NORMAL, THEN
DROP A FEW DEGREES THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...10-17% THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN 6-12%
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE...10-20 THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 7-15%
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...12-20% TODAY
AND THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 20-35% FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN BACK TO
10-17% SUNDAY/MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 102 77 101 / 20 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 70 98 67 95 / 0 0 20 10
LAS CRUCES 72 100 68 99 / 20 40 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 101 69 97 / 0 20 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 55 80 52 77 / 0 60 20 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 100 70 98 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 92 62 91 / 40 50 10 0
DEMING 71 100 69 100 / 20 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 68 96 66 96 / 30 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 100 75 100 / 20 20 10 10
DELL CITY 71 101 68 97 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 103 73 102 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 71 96 68 93 / 0 20 20 10
FABENS 75 102 73 102 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 71 99 / 20 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 101 75 99 / 10 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 69 100 66 98 / 10 30 10 0
HATCH 69 100 67 102 / 30 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 100 74 100 / 20 20 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 100 67 97 / 0 10 0 10
MAYHILL 63 91 57 86 / 0 40 20 70
MESCALERO 58 91 55 87 / 0 60 20 60
TIMBERON 56 88 53 83 / 0 30 10 50
WINSTON 63 93 59 90 / 20 40 10 0
HILLSBORO 69 98 66 96 / 20 30 10 0
SPACEPORT 66 100 64 98 / 10 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 93 55 92 / 40 60 10 0
HURLEY 65 95 63 94 / 30 30 0 0
CLIFF 60 97 59 97 / 30 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 93 55 92 / 30 40 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 95 65 94 / 20 30 0 0
ANIMAS 65 96 64 96 / 50 10 10 0
HACHITA 66 96 65 96 / 40 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 94 66 94 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 90 61 89 / 40 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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