061
FXUS64 KEPZ 180520
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY AND DUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY, WITH STORMS ALSO SPREADING INTO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
- BLOWING DUST MAY RETURN TO LORDSBURG PLAYA AS EARLY AS MID-
MORNING AS GUSTY WNW TO NW WINDS RETURN. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL DUST LATER IN THE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING.
- EXPECT A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
FOCUS MAINLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AROUND 100 TO 102 IN THE LOWLANDS.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
TOMORROW (THU) WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY, WITH NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW PULLING DRIER AIR DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND WNW
TO NW FLOW BRINGING MODIFIED GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AND ALONG THE US-MEXICO BORDER, WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE
RUNNING FROM THE GILA REGION DOWN TOWARDS EL PASO. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE ADDITION OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY
MIDDAY, WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. THE
RESULT WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE LINE, MUCH LIKE TODAY, BUT ALSO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER KEY DIFFERENCE IS MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE THAN ON WEDNESDAY, SO STORMS IN THE GILA WILL BE LESS
PRONE TO DRIFTING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EL PASO AND LAS
CRUCES WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION IN THE SACRAMENTOS PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. STILL, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT MORE
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
BROADER SCALE (NON-CONVECTIVE) WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
TOMORROW AS WELL, WNW TO NW WINDS WILL STILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KICK UP MORE DUST AROUND LORDSBURG PLAYA, EVEN WITHOUT
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO START TO WIN OUT, BUT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, OTERO MESA, AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
POP UP OVER THE HUECOS AND BLACK RANGE AS WELL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
WARMER, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
AROUND EL PASO AND DOWN THE LOWER VALLEY STARTING MONDAY, AND
PERHAPS NOT EASING UP THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS MOSTLY AGREE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER NEXT WEEK, BUT WHETHER IT PARKS ITSELF OVER SW ARIZONA, OR
CLOSER TO US WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
START RATCHETING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 105 MARK AT ELP TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ELEVATED WEST WINDS, PARTICULARLY AT
ELP WITH DOWNSLOPING. AWW STILL LOOKS GOOD, THOUGH WE MIGHT EASE
UP A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN (10-11Z).
WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW AREA-WIDE, WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK AGAIN AT ELP MID-MORNING, BUT EASING UP A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A RISK, WITH
ELP SEEING A GOOD CHANCE AT GUSTY/DUSTY THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST, OR DEVELOPING FROM OUTFLOW COMING IN FROM THE
NE, AFTER 23Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
WE WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY BECAUSE OF
MIN RH'S RUNNING IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 20% IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH STRONGER GUSTS LATER TODAY. MIN RH'S WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN
THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR THE WEEKEND, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION, SO THAT BY SUNDAY, MIN RH'S IN THE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 7% AND IN AREA MOUNTAINS IT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15%.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WHICH CAN TRAVEL A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. WE WILL BE DRY FOR THIS
WEEKEND, BUT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TRY TO MAKE A RETURN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 101 75 101 / 10 20 50 10
SIERRA BLANCA 70 97 66 96 / 10 10 50 20
LAS CRUCES 71 98 67 98 / 0 20 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 68 98 / 0 20 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 77 52 75 / 0 60 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 98 70 99 / 10 30 20 30
SILVER CITY 63 89 61 91 / 20 40 40 0
DEMING 70 100 68 100 / 10 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 67 95 66 96 / 30 10 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 74 99 / 10 20 50 0
DELL CITY 71 100 67 98 / 0 50 70 20
FORT HANCOCK 76 102 72 102 / 10 10 40 20
LOMA LINDA 70 93 67 93 / 10 40 60 30
FABENS 75 102 72 102 / 10 10 50 10
SANTA TERESA 73 97 70 98 / 10 10 50 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 74 99 / 0 50 60 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 99 67 98 / 0 40 50 10
HATCH 70 102 67 102 / 0 30 30 20
COLUMBUS 74 99 74 100 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 67 97 / 0 20 40 20
MAYHILL 63 88 55 85 / 0 50 40 70
MESCALERO 58 88 55 86 / 0 50 60 40
TIMBERON 56 85 53 82 / 0 50 40 40
WINSTON 63 89 58 90 / 10 30 30 30
HILLSBORO 69 95 66 96 / 10 30 20 30
SPACEPORT 67 98 64 98 / 10 30 40 30
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 55 92 / 10 40 30 0
HURLEY 65 92 63 94 / 10 30 30 0
CLIFF 65 95 61 97 / 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 62 91 60 92 / 20 30 20 0
FAYWOOD 67 92 65 94 / 10 40 30 0
ANIMAS 64 95 64 96 / 30 0 10 0
HACHITA 65 95 65 96 / 30 0 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 93 66 94 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 60 88 61 89 / 20 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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