957
FXUS64 KEPZ 181819
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1219 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY AND DUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND 100 TO 105 IN THE LOWLANDS.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE BORDERLAND WILL BE TRANSITIONING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FROM NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
MORE TYPICAL MID-JUNE WEATHER WHICH IS HOT AND DRY. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MODEST MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS. DON'T SEE
MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXCEPT THAT THE SACS
WILL GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG CAMS TO
PUSH THESE OUTFLOWS TOWARD EL PASO BY 00Z. DID HAVE TO RAISE POPS
TO MENTION THEM FOR MANY AREAS BESIDES THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST FOR
FRI AND START TO PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT. LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY AREAS
WITH STORM CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN
ZONES.
BY SATURDAY, AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD
TO VERY LOW DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 100-105
RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS. NBM TEMPS DID SEEM A TAD LOW AND RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG EC AND GFS THAT A STRONG
UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BE IMPORTANT AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION
LEADS TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS. A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION
KEEPS THE MOISTURE OUT AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE 105+ FOR THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW NBM IS GIVING HIGHS IN THE 100-106
RANGE, BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES, WE COULD BE CLOSER TO 107-110
AROUND THE RGV AND 102-107 THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
LOOKS LIKE A REPLAY OF YESTERDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND STRONG OUTFLOWS PUSHING ONTO THE LOWLANDS FIRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40KTS AND
BLOWING DUST BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. GENERALLY EXPECT SCT-BKN100-120
BKN150-200 THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 06Z WITH FEW-SCT120-150 EAST AND SKC WEST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15G25KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT DECREASING AFTER 04Z TO AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
ONE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT FRI WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA
MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100 OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND RH'S FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, THE SACS MAY
STAY ABOVE 10% BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE GILA WILL HAVE A PERIOD
OF SINGLE DIGIT RH'S. WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST DAYS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE 10-20MPH EACH AFTERNOON, SO SOME NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 100 76 103 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 95 67 99 / 20 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 67 97 70 100 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 96 70 101 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 55 78 / 10 40 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 97 69 101 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 90 64 92 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 67 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 96 65 98 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 98 75 101 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 66 94 67 102 / 20 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 101 73 105 / 20 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 66 91 68 96 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 71 100 72 104 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 97 70 101 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 97 74 102 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 97 66 101 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 67 101 69 104 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 99 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 95 68 100 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 60 90 / 10 50 10 10
MESCALERO 56 85 58 89 / 10 30 10 0
TIMBERON 52 81 54 86 / 10 30 10 0
WINSTON 58 88 54 92 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 65 95 68 98 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 98 66 101 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 89 47 93 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 63 93 62 95 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 94 56 98 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 91 50 93 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 93 65 95 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 64 95 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 95 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 94 66 98 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 88 62 92 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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