830
FNUS74 KEPZ 031203
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
603 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND AS
MIN RHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. RHS INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA, LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........7 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12800 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
9 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(153100 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........6 1 4 8
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............54 68 80 83
RH..............16 10 8 7
20 FT WIND......W 2G8 SW 3G16 SW 6G18 SW 6G20
MIX HGT (FT)....600 3300 10700 12600
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 8 SW 9 W 15 SW 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 27 139 153
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 14
TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100700 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........31 55 51 86
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............82 69 64 60
RH..............8 12 14 16
20 FT WIND......W 6G17 W 6G17 NW 6G17 NW 6G18
MIX HGT (FT)....12600 1800 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 13 NW 15 NW 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..101 20 8 8
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR POOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........9 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100900 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........79 34 66 79
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10
TEMP............58 69 79 82
RH..............17 11 10 9
20 FT WIND......NW 5G16 N 3G13 NW 2G14 W 3G14
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2000 12200 13300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 13 N 13 SW 9 S 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 22 91 85
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT
WINDS.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...JOSHUA JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616124.7/EPZ
.DELDT 07/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ECLARKSONRAY@GMAIL.COM,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,CHARLESBWINSTON13@GMAIL.COM,JOSHUA.JOHNSON@USDA.GOV
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