973
FXUS64 KEPZ 232045
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHING TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED
STORMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 105 AROUND EL PASO, THE MESILLA
VALLEY, AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE
DIGITS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS, AND STRETCHES
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CONTINENT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS A RESULT, WE'VE
SEEN A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 101 OR 102 AT ELP TODAY, AND
SHOULD REACH 105 ON FRIDAY (TOMORROW). HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
RAISED FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES, AND MOST AREAS WHERE ELEVATIONS
ARE BELOW 4000 FEET.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RECENTER ITSELF NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER
TOMORROW, WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. TOMORROW
LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE, BUT THE GFS DOES
SHOW A LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER AIR AT 500 MB TRYING TO ROTATE
AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT STILL THINK
WE'LL SEE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER MUCH, SOME RECYCLED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
ATROCIOUSLY WARM, -2 TO -3C AT 500 MB, BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BOOST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA, DESPITE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. WHILE
THERE IS NO OBVIOUS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH, THE GFS DOES SHOW A
WEAK PV ANOMALY IN THE 335-345K LAYER DRIFTING THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY, A VERY WEAK INVERTED TROUGH (ONLY NOTICEABLE IN 200 MB
STREAMLINES) WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA, WITH A LITTLE 50
KNOT ESE "JET STREAK" MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NM. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED MOSTLY TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE (AND MORE SO WEST
OF THE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE).
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO CRAWL BACK EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BATTLE DRIER AIR COMING IN ALOFT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALL IN ALL, SORT OF A SINK-OR-SWIM, SPUTTERING START TO THE
MONSOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES NEAR NIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY, CONTINUING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S OVER THE
LOWLANDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED AND MOSTLY
FOCUSED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A FOCUS FOR STORMS STILL
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS NEAR THE AZ BORDER.
MIN RHS WILL STAY GENERALLY NEAR CRITICAL WITH SOME CRITICAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
AREA MOUNTAINS SEEING RHS OF 25-45%. 20 FOOT WINDS STAY LIGHT
EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 101 70 98 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 71 104 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 102 77 98 / 0 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 56 76 57 74 / 10 20 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 102 76 99 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 67 94 68 89 / 10 10 10 60
DEMING 71 103 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 72 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 104 82 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 74 104 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 106 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 98 72 93 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 76 106 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 104 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 104 81 101 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 74 104 77 100 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 72 106 76 101 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 75 104 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 73 103 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 88 62 85 / 0 20 20 30
MESCALERO 61 88 62 84 / 0 20 20 50
TIMBERON 58 86 59 84 / 0 10 10 30
WINSTON 63 93 65 90 / 10 20 10 50
HILLSBORO 70 99 73 95 / 0 10 10 40
SPACEPORT 71 103 74 99 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 93 62 90 / 10 20 10 80
HURLEY 67 97 70 94 / 0 10 10 40
CLIFF 68 99 69 95 / 10 10 10 60
MULE CREEK 67 96 68 92 / 0 10 20 60
FAYWOOD 69 98 71 94 / 0 10 10 40
ANIMAS 72 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 70 102 73 99 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 101 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 97 69 95 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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