254
FXUS64 KEPZ 241201
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
601 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FRIDAY, WITH JUST ISOLATED
STORMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 105 AROUND EL PASO, THE MESILLA
VALLEY, AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
BEGIN LAST TRANSMISSION:
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO, AND THAT WAS EVIDENT TODAY WITH ANOTHER LARGE
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT BOTH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TONIGHT EPZ UPPER-AIR SOUNDING, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME MUCH DRIER AT ALL LEVELS, AND WARMER ALOFT, BOTH ADDING TO
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION. OVER EPZ, THE SURFACE DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED LOW ENOUGH, THAT EVEN WITH A 100 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURE,
SURFACE PARCELS COULD NOT BREAK THROUGH WARM CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT.
THE DEEPER AND BETTER MOISTURE IS NOW PUSHED TO THE GILA, WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE OTHER 80% OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, THEY THINK TODAY WAS AS DRY
AS IT WILL GET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DAILY MINIMAL
INCREASES IN MOISTURE, FROM THE NORTH (OF ALL PLACES) GOING FORWARD.
AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE, GIVEN THE PATTERN AND POSITION OF THE
HIGH ALOFT. THE SLOWLY RETURNING MOISTURE, WILL BE A REPEAT VISITOR
,FROM THE SAME MOISTURE THE UPPER HIGH SHOVED OUT, AND HAS NOW SPUN
W, N, E, AND BACK SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO, ON THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM. THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SACS, AND
CONTINUED STORMS OVER THE GILA REGION. WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN STORM
MOTION TOMORROW, FROM SE TO NW TO A MOTION FROM NE TO SW. DESPITE
THE SMALL INCREASES IN MOISTURE, MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL STILL
HAVE MINIMAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOWLAND 100
DEGREE MAX TEMPS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE A MIX OF MOIST AND DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH, AND RECYCLED EACH HEAT CYCLE INTO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED (AT BEST) LOWLAND SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET WIDESPREAD AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD, AND ARE LOOKING TO THE EAST
FOR THE PRESENCE OF ANY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TO ENHANCE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. FORMER TS BERTHA PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SO FAR
SOUTH WE DON'T LOOK TO GET ANY MOISTURE OR DYNAMIC HELP OVER OUR
AREA.
NEXT WEEK DOESN'T LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MOST OF THE BORDERLAND, IF YOU
ARE HOPING FOR MORE RAIN, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE BULK OF ANY MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST
OVER AZ AND W NM. THUS, IT APPEARS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST OVER OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, AND
SCATTERED OVER THE BOOTHEEL/GILA AREAS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH 100 DEGREE DAILY HIGHS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
END LAST TRANSMISSION: BIRD OUT
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS WILL FIRE UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM AROUND MID-DAY TODAY
LEAVING LOW END CHANCES FOR TERMINALS TO SEE ANY STORMS TODAY.
KTCS HAS THE BEST SHOT TO SEE A STORM TODAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. STORM CHANCES EXIST EVERY
AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
BORDERING ARIZONA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. MIN RHS IN PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
LOWLANDS WILL FALL TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT 13-18% THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
VALUES OF GENERALLY 18-22%. AREA MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE
GENERALLY 30-45% TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL DECREASE
NEXT WEEK TO 25-35%. LOWLAND MIN RHS WILL DECREASE BACK TO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES STAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT 20 FT AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY AT 5-10
MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 102 79 102 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 96 70 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 74 100 72 99 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 76 99 74 99 / 10 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 56 76 55 75 / 10 50 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 100 73 99 / 20 20 50 20
SILVER CITY 68 93 66 91 / 10 40 50 50
DEMING 74 102 72 101 / 10 0 20 20
LORDSBURG 75 100 72 98 / 10 10 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 82 101 80 101 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 74 100 73 100 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 77 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 72 94 71 95 / 10 0 0 20
FABENS 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 78 100 76 100 / 10 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 101 79 100 / 10 0 10 30
JORNADA RANGE 77 100 75 99 / 10 10 30 20
HATCH 76 103 73 102 / 10 10 40 10
COLUMBUS 78 103 76 102 / 10 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 75 99 74 98 / 10 0 10 10
MAYHILL 61 87 60 87 / 10 40 10 60
MESCALERO 61 87 59 87 / 10 50 20 50
TIMBERON 59 86 58 85 / 10 30 10 40
WINSTON 65 91 63 90 / 20 40 40 60
HILLSBORO 73 98 71 97 / 20 20 50 40
SPACEPORT 74 100 71 99 / 10 10 40 10
LAKE ROBERTS 62 94 60 92 / 20 60 60 70
HURLEY 70 97 67 95 / 10 20 30 40
CLIFF 69 99 67 97 / 10 50 50 50
MULE CREEK 68 95 65 93 / 10 50 60 50
FAYWOOD 71 96 69 95 / 10 20 30 40
ANIMAS 75 100 72 99 / 10 0 20 10
HACHITA 73 100 71 99 / 10 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 100 72 99 / 10 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 70 95 67 92 / 10 0 10 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page