425
FXUS64 KEPZ 250501
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1101 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME OUTFLOW COULD KICK UP DUST IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 103
RANGE AFTER TODAY, TECHNICALLY A MINOR COOL-DOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST. LOW-END MONSOON
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SPRAWLING 598 DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. DESPITE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IT IS
CARRYING IN VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. 500 MB TEMP ON THE 18Z
RAOB WAS -3.3 C. THE INVERTED TROUGH AT ONE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA IS PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED, ALONG THE DURANGO/CHIHUAHUA BORDER, BUT
STILL TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON WEATHER DIRECTLY. IT
WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES, AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE JUST GETTING SCATTERED HIGH ELEVATION
CONVECTION, AND WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO DRIFT INTO THE
LOWLANDS. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS MAY APPROACH LORDSBURG PLAYA AFTER
ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, STILL MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WITH MORE DRIFT INTO THE
LOWLANDS, FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED SOUTH PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
BUT AGAIN MOSTLY INFLUENCING WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH (BUT FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY EVENING). CONVECTION CHANCES
LOOK A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY IN SONORA AND ARIZONA LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN SW NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL BE BATTLING DRY AND WARM AIR INTRUSIONS COMING IN
FROM TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NO CLEAR MONSOON
"BURSTS" ON THE HORIZON, DESPITE A WEAKENING RIDGE DRIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. A LITTLE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE. MIN RHS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE
13-18% TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE JUST BARELY OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TO 18-22% OVER THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN RHS WILL BE 30-50%. SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO MMM 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA MMM 97 70 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES MMM 101 73 100 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO MMM 99 74 99 / 10 30 10 20
CLOUDCROFT MMM 75 55 75 / 30 50 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MMM 99 74 98 / 10 10 40 10
SILVER CITY MMM 93 67 92 / 30 30 40 50
DEMING MMM 102 73 101 / 10 0 20 20
LORDSBURG MMM 101 73 98 / 10 10 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO MMM 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY MMM 101 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK MMM 103 78 104 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA MMM 95 72 95 / 10 0 0 30
FABENS MMM 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA MMM 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ MMM 102 80 100 / 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE MMM 101 75 99 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH MMM 103 74 102 / 10 10 30 10
COLUMBUS MMM 104 77 102 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE MMM 100 74 99 / 10 10 10 20
MAYHILL MMM 87 61 87 / 30 30 10 40
MESCALERO MMM 87 60 87 / 30 50 20 50
TIMBERON MMM 85 58 84 / 20 30 10 50
WINSTON MMM 91 63 90 / 20 50 60 60
HILLSBORO MMM 98 71 96 / 10 20 50 30
SPACEPORT MMM 100 72 99 / 10 10 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS MMM 93 61 92 / 20 50 50 60
HURLEY MMM 97 68 95 / 20 10 40 40
CLIFF MMM 99 68 98 / 30 40 50 40
MULE CREEK MMM 95 66 94 / 30 50 40 40
FAYWOOD MMM 96 69 95 / 20 10 40 40
ANIMAS MMM 101 73 98 / 10 0 30 30
HACHITA MMM 100 72 99 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS MMM 100 71 99 / 10 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE MMM 95 67 92 / 10 10 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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