257
FXUS64 KEPZ 250521
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 103
RANGE AFTER TODAY, TECHNICALLY A MINOR COOL-DOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST. LOW-END MONSOON
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SLOSH ABOUT THE LOWLANDS THIS
EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE CONVECTION FIZZLES OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE LEVEL
LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND (PWS AROUND 1.25" AT KELP)
WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
ERO FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH THE HREF
SHOWING 1-2" 24-HR MAX RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE SACS AND GILA.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE SEEN IN AREA MTNS AND
OUT WEST TOMORROW PM WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND SOME BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR
WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OUT WEST.
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORKWEEK, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST,
LOWERING STORM CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK. THE MTNS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MORE SO THE GILA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HEAT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH SITS
JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 100-105F RANGE MOST DAYS
WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER RGV, LIKE WE SAW TODAY.
THERE'S MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT
TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SCATTERED TS NEAR KTCS THIS EVENING WILL LINGER TO START THE
PERIOD, DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTFLOWS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM E-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE. MIN RHS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE
13-18% TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE JUST BARELY OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TO 18-22% OVER THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN RHS WILL BE 30-50%. SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO MMM 103 80 102 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA MMM 97 70 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES MMM 101 73 100 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO MMM 99 74 99 / 10 30 20 20
CLOUDCROFT MMM 75 55 75 / 30 50 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MMM 99 74 98 / 10 10 40 10
SILVER CITY MMM 93 67 92 / 20 30 40 50
DEMING MMM 102 73 101 / 10 0 20 20
LORDSBURG MMM 101 73 98 / 10 10 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO MMM 102 81 101 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY MMM 101 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK MMM 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA MMM 95 72 95 / 10 0 0 30
FABENS MMM 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA MMM 101 77 100 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ MMM 102 80 100 / 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE MMM 101 75 99 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH MMM 103 74 102 / 10 10 30 10
COLUMBUS MMM 104 77 102 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE MMM 100 74 99 / 10 10 10 20
MAYHILL MMM 87 61 87 / 30 30 10 40
MESCALERO MMM 87 60 87 / 30 60 20 50
TIMBERON MMM 85 58 84 / 20 30 10 50
WINSTON MMM 91 63 90 / 20 50 50 60
HILLSBORO MMM 98 71 96 / 10 20 50 30
SPACEPORT MMM 100 72 99 / 10 10 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS MMM 93 61 92 / 20 50 50 60
HURLEY MMM 97 68 95 / 20 10 30 40
CLIFF MMM 99 68 98 / 30 40 50 40
MULE CREEK MMM 95 66 94 / 20 50 40 40
FAYWOOD MMM 96 69 95 / 10 10 40 40
ANIMAS MMM 101 73 98 / 10 0 30 30
HACHITA MMM 100 72 99 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS MMM 100 71 99 / 0 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE MMM 95 67 92 / 10 10 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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