520
FXUS64 KEPZ 251755 AAB
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP LOW ELEVATION DESERT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE AFTER TODAY, TECHNICALLY A
MINOR COOL- DOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST. LOW-END MONSOON
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SLOSH ABOUT THE LOWLANDS THIS
EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE CONVECTION FIZZLES OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE LEVEL
LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND (PWS AROUND 1.25" AT KELP)
WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
ERO FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH THE HREF
SHOWING 1-2" 24-HR MAX RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE SACS AND GILA.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE SEEN IN AREA MTNS AND
OUT WEST TOMORROW PM WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND SOME BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR
WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OUT WEST.
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORKWEEK, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST,
LOWERING STORM CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK. THE MTNS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MORE SO THE GILA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HEAT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH SITS
JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 100-105F RANGE MOST DAYS
WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER RGV, LIKE WE SAW TODAY.
THERE'S MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT
TEMPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING MORE SPARSE AND
ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ALSO
THE GILA WILDERNESS WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WHILE THE TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS OF
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING ALSO ACCOMPANY. STORMS
WILL STRUGGLE TO ROLL OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, BUT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KTCS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH VERY FEW SURVIVING THEREAFTER. HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WILL BE COMMON, CREATING POOR AIRCRAFT
PERFORMANCE FOR SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE. MIN RHS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL
INCREASE JUST BARELY OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO 18-22% OVER
THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN RHS WILL BE 30-50%. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT 20
FOOT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. ERCS/FIRE DANGER REMAIN LOW, AND FUEL
MOISTURES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 102 79 103 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 98 72 100 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 73 99 73 101 / 10 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 98 76 100 / 20 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 57 75 57 78 / 20 40 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 99 74 100 / 40 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 67 91 66 91 / 30 30 20 50
DEMING 74 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 73 98 72 97 / 30 30 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 101 80 103 / 0 10 20 0
DELL CITY 74 101 74 103 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 103 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 78 102 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 77 100 76 101 / 10 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 100 80 102 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 76 99 76 101 / 20 10 10 0
HATCH 75 102 74 103 / 30 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 78 102 77 101 / 10 20 30 0
OROGRANDE 75 99 74 101 / 10 20 10 0
MAYHILL 61 85 62 88 / 20 40 20 30
MESCALERO 61 84 62 88 / 20 40 20 30
TIMBERON 60 85 60 87 / 10 40 20 20
WINSTON 64 89 63 92 / 40 50 10 30
HILLSBORO 72 95 71 97 / 50 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 73 99 72 101 / 30 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 62 89 61 91 / 50 40 20 70
HURLEY 68 94 67 95 / 30 30 20 30
CLIFF 69 96 68 97 / 40 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 67 93 66 93 / 40 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 70 94 68 95 / 30 30 20 30
ANIMAS 73 98 71 97 / 30 30 50 10
HACHITA 72 99 70 97 / 10 30 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 97 70 95 / 10 30 40 20
CLOVERDALE 67 91 66 91 / 20 40 50 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...99
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