766
FXUS64 KEPZ 251927
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
127 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- LOW ELEVATION DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL PERIODICALLY REACH 100
TO 105, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE GILA
WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
BOOT HEEL OF NM. STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN DESERTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION. CURRENTLY, PWATS
REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.3 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE FAVORING SONORA INTO SOUTHERN AZ WITH
MODIFIED AND MORE SUBDUED PWATS INTO NM AND FAR WEST TX. SLUGGISH
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE COMMON, INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA WILDERNESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
PROPAGATING INTO NEARBY VALLEYS WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO
INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BORDERLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE SACRAMENTO'S WILL END AT 6 PM MDT WHEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ABATE THERE.
INTO SUNDAY, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO'S OBSERVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN, WHILE STORMS
ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER THE BOOT HEEL AND ALONG THE
SONORA- CHIHUAHUA BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF FAR WEST TX
STAYING VOID OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH LOTS OF UPPER 90'S AND LOW 100'S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS.
CHANGES INTO MONDAY ARE SUBTLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OR ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH TUESDAY
ONWARD WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY APPRECIABLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. POPS MIMIC CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE JULY, TYPICALLY THE MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD, WITH
THE GILA, NM BOOT HEEL, AND SACRAMENTO'S STAYING THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES IN THE RIO GRANDE WILL ESCALATE
TO 100 TO 105 IN MANY LOCALES, INCREASING HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING MORE SPARSE AND
ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ALSO
THE GILA WILDERNESS WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WHILE THE TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS OF
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING ALSO ACCOMPANY. STORMS
WILL STRUGGLE TO ROLL OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, BUT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KTCS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH VERY FEW SURVIVING THEREAFTER. HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WILL BE COMMON, CREATING POOR AIRCRAFT
PERFORMANCE FOR SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE GILA WILDERNESS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE BOOT HEEL OF NM WITH
MORE SPARSE STORM ACTIVITY ONLY OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT INTO LOWER
DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT IN LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS WITH MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20% BEING COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WIND CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS ON LOCALIZED SCALES FOR BRIEF TIME FRAMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 102 79 103 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 98 72 100 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 73 99 73 101 / 10 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 98 76 100 / 20 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 57 75 57 78 / 20 40 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 99 74 100 / 40 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 67 91 66 91 / 30 30 20 50
DEMING 74 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 73 98 72 97 / 30 30 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 101 80 103 / 0 10 20 0
DELL CITY 74 101 74 103 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 103 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 78 102 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 77 100 76 101 / 10 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 100 80 102 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 76 99 76 101 / 20 10 10 0
HATCH 75 102 74 103 / 30 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 78 102 77 101 / 10 20 30 0
OROGRANDE 75 99 74 101 / 10 20 10 0
MAYHILL 61 85 62 88 / 20 40 20 30
MESCALERO 61 84 62 88 / 20 40 20 30
TIMBERON 60 85 60 87 / 10 40 20 20
WINSTON 64 89 63 92 / 40 50 10 30
HILLSBORO 72 95 71 97 / 50 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 73 99 72 101 / 30 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 62 89 61 91 / 50 40 20 70
HURLEY 68 94 67 95 / 30 30 20 30
CLIFF 69 96 68 97 / 40 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 67 93 66 93 / 40 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 70 94 68 95 / 30 30 20 30
ANIMAS 73 98 71 97 / 30 30 50 10
HACHITA 72 99 70 97 / 10 30 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 97 70 95 / 10 30 40 20
CLOVERDALE 67 91 66 91 / 20 40 50 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...99
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