059
FXUS64 KEPZ 261805
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF JULY AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON, POSING A
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A HEAVY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST. THERE
STILL REMAINS GOOD MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DOME, WITH PWAT VALUES
LIKELY TO GET AT OR ABOVE 0.9-1.0" TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY EACH AFTERNOON, DRIFTING OFF INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS WITH THESE STORMS, AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE
SLOW MOVING WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS IN THE GILA REGION
AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE CLOSE TO SATURATION BASED ON
SATELLITE-DERIVED SOIL MOISTURE, WHILE AREAS FROM LAS CRUCES TO
DEMING TO EL PASO AND SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE VERY DRY. BOTH
ENDS OF THE SOIL MOISTURE SPECTRUM CAN LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES WITH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD A STORM FORM IN THESE AREAS. WHILE
THERE ARE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE US-
MEXICO BORDER EACH DAY, A FEW COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA MAY DEVELOP AN ISOLATED STORM (LOW CONFIDENCE).
ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE ARE THE CONSISTENT HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. REPEATED DAYS OF 100F OR
GREATER HIGH TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HIGH 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AND
ILLNESSES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN OUR TX FORECAST AREAS, INCLUDING THE EL PASO
METRO AREA. THERE IS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THESE AREAS WILL
SEE FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES AS WELL, GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
THESE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY WESTWARD TOWARDS AZ, BUT WILL NOT
DO MUCH TO DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE CONDITIONS. EXPECTING THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN STORM MOTION EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY DIRECT
HIT, THOUGH THERE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY TAF SITES TO BE
IMPACTED. SHOWERS LIKELY TO WANE BY SUNDOWN, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TO REMAIN THROUGH 06Z. RATHER LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS
MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 06-12Z NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. INTERESTS SHOULD
ALSO NOTE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, CORRELATING WITH
HIGHER DENSITY ALTITUDES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND
NEAR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS. ANY RECENT BURN AREAS AND
SATURATED SOILS WILL BE AT HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS. ANY WIND
THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE
OVERALL WINDS REMAINING RATHER LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 105 79 106 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 72 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 74 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 57 79 58 80 / 10 20 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 102 76 103 / 10 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 67 93 67 95 / 20 30 10 40
DEMING 73 103 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 73 99 73 99 / 20 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 74 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 79 106 78 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 73 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 77 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 104 80 104 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 76 103 77 104 / 10 0 10 10
HATCH 75 105 76 106 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 79 104 77 104 / 0 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 74 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 62 91 63 91 / 10 20 10 20
MESCALERO 61 90 62 91 / 10 20 0 30
TIMBERON 59 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 20
WINSTON 64 92 65 94 / 20 30 20 20
HILLSBORO 71 99 72 100 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 72 102 73 103 / 10 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 94 61 95 / 20 40 10 60
HURLEY 68 97 68 98 / 20 30 10 30
CLIFF 69 99 69 100 / 20 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 66 95 67 95 / 20 30 20 30
FAYWOOD 69 96 69 98 / 10 20 10 20
ANIMAS 73 99 72 99 / 20 10 20 10
HACHITA 72 99 71 99 / 20 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 98 69 98 / 20 20 50 10
CLOVERDALE 67 92 65 92 / 30 40 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WESTERN EL
PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
FORECASTER...99
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