972
FXUS64 KEPZ 270450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS
100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND WILL SIT THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF LATE JULY.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. GFS
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING
MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE BROAD AND DIFFUSE,
BUT GENERALLY FAVOR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
FOR MONDAY, LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO FORCING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A "DOWN" DAY OF RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE GILA WILDERNESS AND NM BOOTHEEL. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY
DRY, INCLUDING NEARLY ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AS STORM MOTIONS
REMAIN VERY SLOW IF NOT STATIONARY AND CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLAND WILL BE HOT TEMPERATURES.
SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL RUN
8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN BOTH TIME
AND AREA LATER THIS WEEK.
MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OR ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH FOR
TUESDAY ONWARD WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY APPRECIABLE
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH ELEVATIONS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST, WHICH IS STILL A POOR WEATHER PATTERN FOR RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS 260-320 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS S NM,
AOB 5 KNOTS FOR KELP. SKIES FEW-SCT150, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE S NM MOUNTAINS AGAIN
TOMORROW, LIKELY NOT AFFECTING LOCAL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND
NEAR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS. ANY RECENT BURN AREAS AND SATURATED SOILS
WILL BE AT HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS. ANY WIND THREATS WILL BE
LOCALIZED FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE OVERALL WINDS
REMAINING RATHER LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 105 79 106 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 74 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 79 58 79 / 10 20 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 102 76 103 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 66 94 67 94 / 10 10 10 50
DEMING 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 71 99 73 100 / 10 0 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 73 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 104 80 105 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 74 106 76 106 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 91 63 91 / 10 20 0 20
MESCALERO 60 91 63 91 / 10 10 0 30
TIMBERON 58 88 60 89 / 10 10 0 20
WINSTON 63 93 66 94 / 10 20 20 40
HILLSBORO 71 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 62 95 / 20 20 20 60
HURLEY 67 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 40
CLIFF 67 100 69 100 / 20 10 10 40
MULE CREEK 65 95 67 96 / 10 10 20 40
FAYWOOD 68 97 70 98 / 10 10 10 50
ANIMAS 71 99 71 99 / 20 10 30 10
HACHITA 70 100 72 100 / 20 0 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 69 99 / 10 20 40 20
CLOVERDALE 66 93 64 92 / 30 20 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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