866
FXUS64 KEPZ 271901
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
101 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH AFTERNOON,
POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- SOME MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AND SONORA WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BRING A ONE-DAY UPTICK
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BROADLY OVER NORTHERN NM
AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH BEGINS
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS (GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS) AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS BORDERING ARIZONA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HAVE AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWESTERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST MEXICO
WHICH WILL PUSH IN BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY HELP SET THE
STAGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND
30-35KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CELLS. WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD WE KEEP OUR STORM CHANCES WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE AREA WILL REMAIN HOT THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOWLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING LAS
CRUCES, HATCH, THE EL PASO METRO, AND THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE OR WILL REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MAX TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105F)
DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE, SO PLEASE TAKE
THE HEAT SERIOUSLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME SORT OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AROUND 04-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. UPTICK IN ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RHS
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL EACH
DAY WITH PERCENTAGES OF AROUND 13-20% EACH AFTERNOON. AREA MOUNTAIN
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40%. STORM CHANCES EXIST EACH AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN STORM
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE GILA
REGION AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS, MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH HIGHS OF 75F TO
90F.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 106 79 104 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 101 70 99 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 73 104 72 102 / 10 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 103 74 102 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 58 80 56 78 / 10 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 102 75 101 / 10 30 50 0
SILVER CITY 68 95 66 94 / 10 50 30 30
DEMING 73 104 72 103 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 73 100 72 100 / 10 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 105 79 103 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 74 105 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 107 77 107 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 99 71 96 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 78 106 77 104 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 105 79 103 / 10 10 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 76 105 75 102 / 10 10 40 0
HATCH 76 107 75 105 / 10 20 30 0
COLUMBUS 78 105 77 104 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 63 92 61 89 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 63 92 60 90 / 10 20 10 10
TIMBERON 60 89 59 89 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 66 93 64 92 / 20 40 40 30
HILLSBORO 73 100 72 99 / 10 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 73 103 72 101 / 10 30 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 60 94 / 10 50 30 60
HURLEY 69 98 67 97 / 10 40 30 20
CLIFF 69 100 68 100 / 20 40 30 30
MULE CREEK 66 96 65 96 / 20 50 30 40
FAYWOOD 70 98 69 97 / 10 40 30 10
ANIMAS 72 100 72 100 / 20 20 30 10
HACHITA 72 100 71 100 / 20 20 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 71 100 / 30 20 50 10
CLOVERDALE 64 93 66 94 / 40 20 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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