390
FXUS64 KEPZ 281648
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT WEST WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
LOWER STORM CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TODAY WILL SEE THE BEST (WORST?) OF BOTH WORLDS AS VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPAND ACROSS THE RGV/EASTWARD AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SETS UP OUT WEST. THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER E NM TODAY, ALLOWING
LOWLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 105 AND WARRANTING HEAT
ADVISORIES. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
PWS AROUND 1.2" WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. HREF MAX 6-HR RAINFALL SHOWS UP TO 2" OF RAIN WITH
CONSISTENT BULLS-EYES IN THE NM BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM DEMING EASTWARD.
THE UPPER HIGH DOESN'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH THU, FLATTENING OUT A BIT
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE SOMEWHAT OUT WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWER STORM
CHANCES THAN TODAY. TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK
WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON FRI AS THE HIGH
STRETCHES WEST.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER AZ, ALLOWING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED
MTN STORMS ARE MODELED EACH AFTERNOON, DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS. BETTER MOISTURE
AND STORM CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS TOWARDS 100 FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
LOW STORM CHANCES W OF KDMN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS OVER 30KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING FROM W-NW, FAVORING KDMN AND KTCS. BLDU
MAY REDUCE VIS TO 3 SM AT KDMN FROM OUTFLOW. WINDS AOB 10KTS
OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS, FAVORING S-SE DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE WED/THU TO THE WEST AS TEMPS REMAIN HOT.
AREA MTNS WILL SEE BETTER STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPS COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-30% THROUGH FRI. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO
VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 106 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 103 71 102 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 80 54 79 / 10 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 102 74 102 / 20 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 95 66 95 / 30 20 20 30
DEMING 71 103 72 103 / 20 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 101 72 101 / 20 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 103 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 107 76 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 98 69 96 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 103 75 102 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 105 77 103 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 74 103 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 73 106 73 105 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 105 76 104 / 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 72 103 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 60 92 59 91 / 10 10 10 20
TIMBERON 58 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 63 93 64 93 / 30 10 20 30
HILLSBORO 71 100 71 100 / 20 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 71 102 71 101 / 10 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 95 60 95 / 30 30 10 60
HURLEY 65 98 67 98 / 20 10 10 20
CLIFF 65 101 68 101 / 20 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 63 97 66 97 / 20 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 68 98 69 97 / 20 10 10 10
ANIMAS 69 101 72 103 / 40 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 100 71 102 / 20 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 100 70 100 / 20 10 20 10
CLOVERDALE 65 94 66 95 / 30 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER
CITY AREA-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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